Centre for Sports Business events

Centre for Sports Business events provide opportunities for open debate, shape business agendas, and establish research priorities.

Upcoming events

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SEMINAR - Quantifying Uncertainty in Football: Fan Emotions and Competitive Predictions

Speaker: Dr David Winkelmann, University of Bielefeld
Open to: Any staff and students, with no sign up needed
Date: Thursday 6 November 2025
Time: 3-4pm
In person: Management School, Marketing Suite

Abstract:

While people usually seek to avoid uncertainty, the unpredictability of match outcomes creates excitement in sports. This talk presents two data-driven studies related to quantifying uncertainty in football and its impact on spectators as well as clubs.

The first part investigates emotional responses among supporters of the third-division club Arminia Bielefeld during the 2025 German Cup final. Combining physiological and survey data, we trace how fan engagement evolves before, during, and after the match, revealing strong emotional reactions to in-match dynamics.

The second study focuses on the UEFA Champions League, where the introduction of a new competition format in the 2024/25 season has created uncertainty about qualification prospects. Using a bivariate Dixon-Coles model with Elo-based team strengths, we simulate match outcomes and estimate the point thresholds required for direct advancement and play-off participation, offering insights for strategic decision-making by clubs.

Together, these projects demonstrate how quantitative methods enhance our understanding of both the emotional and structural dimensions of uncertainty in contemporary football.

SEMINAR - The impact of Financial Fair Play on competitive balance

Speaker: Dr Nicolas Scelles, Manchester Metropolitan University  
Open to: Any staff and students, with no sign up needed
Date: Thursday 4 December 2025
Time: 1-3pm
In person: Management School, Atrium

Abstract (to be published soon)