The Attitudes to the Safeguarding the Union Command Paper Survey [PDF 0.4MB] was conducted using an online panel methodology with the data weighted to be demographically representative of the NI adult population. The survey has a margin of error of +/- 3.1%. Fieldwork, which included 1206 respondents, was undertaken between 11th and 28th February.
A Command Paper outlining the deal – Safeguarding the Union – and accompanying draft Statutory Instruments were published on Wednesday 31 January. The deal comprises two main elements:
- Changes to the Internal Market Act/Windsor Framework
- Measures relating to Northern Ireland’s constitutional status
Within this survey we asked for opinions regarding the Safeguarding the Union Command paper and the restoration of the Northern Ireland Assembly.
Main survey findings
The most positive groups of electors regarding the Command Paper were DUP voters. This was to be expected given that the DUP were the sole negotiators with the UK government and indirectly with the EU. In overall terms the plurality of unionists considered post-Brexit trading arrangements to be a ‘good deal’.
The data presented on voting intentions indicates that the DUP’s negotiation and support of the Command Paper that led to their return to the Assembly did not lead to a loss of support when compared to the council elections in 2023. It also did not impact in terms of defections to the TUV.
As has been found previously, with the exception of TUV voters, there is majority support regarding the proposition that ‘access to both the EU and UK markets is vital to the economy of Northern Ireland’.
When respondents were asked if they accepted ‘… that there are issues within the Safeguarding the Union Command Paper that require resolution but these are not as important as restoring the Assembly 50% of TUV voters disagreed compared to 12% of UUP and 9.5% of DUP voters. DUP voters were 6 times more likely to agree than disagree. Over 5 times as many unionists agreed (62.5%) than disagreed (11.7%).
Download Attitudes to the Safeguarding the Union Command Paper Survey [PDF 0.4MB] full results.
Professor Peter Shirlow, co-researcher of the survey, stated that "It was predicted that the DUP returning to Stormont would lead to defections. That does not appear to be the case.
"It was also claimed that the DUP leader Jeffrey Donaldson was pacified by loyalist demands to not re-enter the Northern Ireland Assembly and that the DUP would not share office with a Sinn Fein First Minister. The DUP negotiated the Safeguarding the Union Command Paper and have now re-entered government in Northern Ireland, proving that the criticisms levelled at them, about sharing office with Sinn Fein, were inaccurate. It seems, that at this stage, the DUP has maintained its voter base and in general received significant approval from DUP voters. It is really clear that DUP voters admire the intent and purpose of the Command Paper but some defer opinion on aspects such as the movement of goods.
"Evidently, if the Command Paper achieves what it claims it will that may then provide capacity for the DUP to re-build after the negative impact of Brexit upon their vote. It seems that Jeffrey Donaldson has walked a tightrope and proven that he could deliver a deal that was popular among his base."
Download the Attitudes to the Safeguarding the Union Command Paper Survey [PDF 0.4MB] full results.
If the Command Paper achieves what it claims it will that may then provide capacity for the DUP to re-build after the negative impact of Brexit upon their vote.
Professor Peter Shirlow, Director, Institute of Irish Studies.