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Institute of Irish Studies Survey December 2025

This survey, based on a sample of 1,534 Northern Ireland electors aged 18+, examines voting intentions, collapsing Stormont, support or opposition to constitutional change, the place and role of migrants in society, and Assembly reform.

The current survey is based on a sample of 1,534 Northern Ireland electors aged 18+.  The survey was conducted using an online panel methodology with the data weighted (i.e. gender, age, SEG, local government district and religion) to be representative of N Ireland population.  The survey has a margin of error of +/- 2.5% at the 95% Confidence Level.  Fieldwork was undertaken between 1 and 14 November 2025.   The survey was undertaken by Social Market Research.

Download the full Institute of Irish Studies Survey December 2025 [PDF 1MB]

In this version of the survey we examine:

  • voting intentions
  • collapsing Stormont
  • the constitutional question is examined per those who are supportive or opposed to constitutional change and those who have no opinion on the matter
  • the place and role of migrants in society.
  • Assembly reform.

Electoral fortunes compared to Westminster 2024

  • SF, SDLP and PBP have a predicted vote share of 37.1% that is 2.1% lower than Westminster 2024 due in part to a 3.7% decline in votes for SF.
  • The DUP, TUV and UUP have grown their vote share slightly to 41.6% or by 1.5% since last year despite a decline in support for the DUP.
  • The non-constitutional Alliance and Greens have increased their vote share from 15.4% to 17.7% due to an impressive rise in the vote share for the Greens to 5.1%.
  • SF are down from 29% to 25.3% with the DUP down from 21.3% to 19.2%.
  • Alliance is down marginally from 13.5% to 12.6% while the SDLP and UUP remain relatively static.
  • The Green Party has gained significant growth from 1.9% to 5.1%. People Before Profit have also grown from 1.9% to 2.6%.

Collapsing Stormont

  • Sixty percent agreed that they would not vote for a party that collapsed the Assembly before the election in 2027. A mere 12% stated that they would.
  • Among party voters 51.9% of SF, 78.4% of SDLP, 55.5% of UUP, 70.5% of Alliance voters and 32.8% of DUP voters stated they would not vote for a party that collapsed the Assembly before the election in 2027.

Border poll

  • Since 2017 there has been a 5.6% rise in support for voting for a united Ireland tomorrow.
  • Between 2024 and 2025 there has been a small decline in support for Irish unity by 1.2%

Regarding the results Prof. Shirlow FAcSS, Director of the Institute of Irish Studies, said "Again we find evidence of a society that is more complex than the stereotype of Catholic v Protestant and nationalist v unionist. Respondents are now identifying in ways that make predicting the future of Northern Ireland less contingent upon past identities.

"It would seem, at this stage, that the Assembly Election in 2027 will not take Northern Ireland into border poll territory."

Download the full Institute of Irish Studies Survey December 2025 [PDF 1MB]