The project was led by Professor Peter Shirlow and Dr Sean Haughey. The survey was conducted using an online panel methodology with the data weighted to be demographically representative of the NI adult population. The survey has a margin of error of +/- 3.1%.
Fieldwork was undertaken between 17th and 30th June 2023.
Summary of findings
- Strongest support for maintaining the union is found among the following identity groups: British only (81.3%), Northern Irish only (54.7%) or British and Irish only (47.6%). Majorities supporting Irish unification sat within Irish only (51.6%), and Irish/Northern Irish only (66.7%).
- Support for Irish unity is strongest among the 18-34 age group (42% would vote for unity; 38% would vote against). Opposition to Irish unity is strongest among the 60+ age category (64% would vote against).
- Overall, 36% would vote for Irish unity tomorrow; 47% would vote against. Support and opposition levels change when respondents were asked about voting on Irish unification in 15-20 years. 40% would vote for Irish unity in 15-20 years; 36% would vote against.
- The greater number of Catholics joining the electoral register has not translated into a surge in votes for pro-unity parties. Since 1998 the electorate has increased by over 195000 with an increase in the pro-unity vote equivalent to c16.0% of new registrations. During the same period, the growth in Alliance votes, equates to around a third of the growth in new registrations.
- 32.9% of Catholics would either not vote for a united Ireland tomorrow, not vote or do not know how they would vote compared to 18.8% of Protestants.
- A third (32.7%) and a fifth of SF voters stated that they voted ‘to show support for a return to Stormont’ this compared to a fifth (19.1%) who chose the option ‘to advance Irish unity’. The highest 2nd preference was ‘the party most likely to fight for public services’.
- DUP voters compared to SF voters were more motivated by the constitutional issue (55.2%) which was significantly higher than the 16.8% who voted for the boycotting of Stormont.
- 40.5% of Alliance supporters voted ‘to challenge constitutional and identity politics’ with a significant share voting (29.3%) to show support for the return of Stormont. Interestingly, across all 3 sets of voters voting due to being impressed by the party leader was the lowest ranked option.
- Nearly one third of respondents (31.7%), the majority of whom were pro-union, did not vote for unionist or nationalist parties but declared that they would either vote for or against a united Ireland tomorrow.
- The majority of all political identity groups supported the availability of abortion services in Northern Ireland.
Download the Voting, Identity, Trust and Media full survey results [PDF 0.8MB]
Professor Shirlow commented "the latest survey and recent Census data indicates that Northern Ireland is in a political and demographic stalemate. What it also evidenced if that secularisation and social liberalism among those who wish to remain in the UK prevents many from voting for unionist parties. We also evidence that despite a growing electorate that is more likely to be Catholic that this has not translated into a major growth in votes for pro-unity parties. It would appear that many young people are less driven by constitutional politics than their parents."