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Publications

Find out more about our research publications.

CVD and NCD trends work

  1. Shah NS, Lloyd-Jones DM, O'Flaherty M, Capewell S, Kershaw KN, Carnethon M, Khan SS. Trends in Cardiometabolic Mortality in the United States, 1999-2017. JAMA. 2019 Aug 27;322(8):780-782. doi: 10.1001/jama.2019.9161. 
  2. Collins B, Kypridemos C, Cookson R, Parvulescu P, McHale P, Guzman-Castillo M, Bandosz P, Bromley H, Capewell S, O'Flaherty M. Universal or targeted cardiovascular screening? Modelling study using a sector-specific distributional cost effectiveness analysis. Prev Med. 2020 Jan;130:105879. doi: 10.1016/j.ypmed.2019.105879. Epub 2019 Oct 31. 
  3. Khan, S. S., Shah, N. S., Ning, H., Labarthe, D. R., Huffman, M. D., Bundy, J. D., . . . Lloyd-Jones, D. M. (2019). Cardiovascular Health Behavior and Health Factor Trends (1999-2014) and Projections to 2050: Results From the National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys (Conference Paper). Circulation Vol. 139. Wolters Kluwer Health. doi:10.1161/circ.139.suppl_1.MP01 DOI: 10.1161/circ.139.suppl_1.MP01
  4. Rücker V, Wiedmann S, O'Flaherty M, Busch MA, Heuschmann PU. Decline in Regional Trends in Mortality of Stroke Subtypes in Germany From 1998 to 2015. Stroke. 2018 Nov;49(11):2577-2583. doi: 10.1161/STROKEAHA.118.023193. .
  5. Head A, Fleming K, Kypridemos C, Schofield P, Pearson-Stuttard J, O'Flaherty M. Inequalities in incident and prevalent multimorbidity in England, 2004-19: a population-based, descriptive study. Lancet Healthy Longev. 2021 Aug;2(8):e489-e497. doi: 10.1016/S2666-7568(21)00146-X. Epub 2021 Jul 21.
  6. Pearson-Stuttard, J., Guzman-Castillo, M., Penalvo, J. L., Rehm, C. D., Afshin, A., Danaei, G., O'Flaherty, M. (2016). Modeling Future Cardiovascular Disease Mortality in the United States National Trends and Racial and Ethnic Disparities. Circulation, 133(10), 967-978. DOI: 10.1161/CIRCULATIONAHA.115.019904
  7. Bjorck, L., Rosengren, A., Winkvist, A., Capewell, S., Adiels, M., Bandosz, P., Johansson, I. (2016). Changes in Dietary Fat Intake and Projections for Coronary Heart Disease Mortality in Sweden: A Simulation Study. PLOS ONE, 11(8). doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0160474 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0160474
  8. Kypridemos, C., Bandosz, P., Hickey, G., Guzman Castillo, M., Allen, K., Buchan, I., O'Flaherty, M. (2015). Quantifying the Contribution of Statins to the Decline in Population Mean Cholesterol by Socioeconomic Group in England 1991 - 2012: A Modelling Study. PloS One, 10(4). Retrieved from https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0123112
  9. Castillo, M. G., Gillespie, D. O. S., Allen, K., Bandosz, P., Schmid, V., Capewell, S., & O'Flaherty, M. (2014). Future Declines of Coronary Heart Disease Mortality in England and Wales Could Counter the Burden of Population Ageing. PLOS ONE, 9(6). doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0099482 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0099482
  10. Shah NS, Lloyd-Jones DM, Kandula NR, Huffman MD, Capewell S, O'Flaherty M, Kershaw KN, Carnethon MR, Khan SS. Adverse Trends in Premature Cardiometabolic Mortality in the United States, 1999 to 2018. J Am Heart Assoc. 2020 Dec;9(23):e018213. doi: 10.1161/JAHA.120.018213. Epub 2020 Nov 23. 
  11. Bandosz P, O'Flaherty M, Drygas W, Rutkowski M, Koziarek J, Wyrzykowski B, Bennett K, Zdrojewski T, Capewell S. Decline in mortality from coronary heart disease in Poland after socioeconomic transformation: modelling study. BMJ. 2012 Jan 25;344:d8136. doi: 10.1136/bmj.d8136. 

Modelling

  1. Sexton E, Donnelly NA, Merriman NA, Hickey A, Wren MA, O'Flaherty M, Bandosz P, Guzman-Castillo M, Williams DJ, Horgan F, Pender N, Feeney J, de Looze C, Kenny RA, Kelly P, Bennett K. StrokeCog Markov Model: Projected Prevalent and Incident Cases of Stroke and Poststroke Cognitive Impairment to 2035 in Ireland. Stroke. 2021 Dec;52(12):3961-3969. doi: 10.1161/STROKEAHA.121.034005. Epub 2021 Sep 9. 
  2. O'Flaherty M, Lloyd-Williams F, Capewell S, Boland A, Maden M, Collins B, Bandosz P, Hyseni L, Kypridemos C. Modelling tool to support decision-making in the NHS Health Check programme: workshops, systematic review and co-production with users. Health Technol Assess. 2021 May;25(35):1-234. doi: 10.3310/hta25350. 
  3. Nilson EAF, Pearson-Stuttard J, Collins B, Guzman-Castillo M, Capewell S, O'Flaherty M, Jaime PC, Kypridemos C. Estimating the health and economic effects of the voluntary sodium reduction targets in Brazil: microsimulation analysis. BMC Med. 2021 Sep 29;19(1):225. doi: 10.1186/s12916-021-02099-x. 
  4. O'Flaherty M, Bandosz P, Critchley J, Capewell S, Guzman-Castillo M, Aspelund T, Bennett K, Kabir Z, Björck L, Bruthans J, Hotchkiss JW, Hughes J, Laatikainen T, Palmieri L, Zdrojewski T; Euroheart II Steering Group. Erratum to "Exploring potential mortality reductions in 9 European countries by improving diet and lifestyle: A modelling approach" [Int. J. Cardiol. 207 (2016) 286-291]. Int J Cardiol. 2016 Jul 1;214:536. doi: 10.1016/j.ijcard.2016.04.121. Epub 2016 Apr 23. Erratum for: Int J Cardiol. 2016 Mar 15;207 :286-91. 
  5. Pearson-Stuttard J, Hooton W, Critchley J, Capewell S, Collins M, Mason H, Guzman-Castillo M, O'Flaherty M. Cost-effectiveness analysis of eliminating industrial and all trans fats in England and Wales: modelling study. J Public Health (Oxf). 2017 Sep 1;39(3):574-582. doi: 10.1093/pubmed/fdw095. 
  6. Collins, M., Mason, H., O'Flaherty, M., Guzman-Castillo, M., Critchley, J., & Capewell, S. (2014). An economic evaluation of salt reduction policies to reduce cardiovascular disease in England: a policy modelling study. Value in Health, 17(5), 517-524. doi:10.1016/j.jval.2014.03.1722 DOI: 10.1016/j.jval.2014.03.1722
  7. Guzman-Castillo M, Ahmed R, Hawkins N, Scholes S, Wilkinson E, Lucy J, Capewell S, O'Flaherty M. The contribution of primary prevention medication and dietary change in coronary mortality reduction in England between 2000 and 2007: a modelling study. BMJ Open. 2015 Jan 22;5(1):e006070. doi: 10.1136/bmjopen-2014-006070. Erratum in: BMJ Open. 2015;5(4):e006070corr1. 
  8. Guzman Castillo, M. D. L., Ahmadi-Abhari, S., Bandosz, P., Capewell, S., Steptoe, A., Singh-Manoux, A., O'flaherty, M. (2017). Forecasted trends in disability and life expectancy in England and Wales up to 2025: a modelling study. Lancet Public Health, 2(7), E307-E313. doi:10.1016/S2468-2667(17)30091-9 DOI: 10.1016/S2468-2667(17)30091-9
  9. Pearson-Stuttard J, Hooton W, Critchley J, Capewell S, Collins M, Mason H, Guzman-Castillo M, O'Flaherty M. Cost-effectiveness analysis of eliminating industrial and all trans fats in England and Wales: modelling study. J Public Health (Oxf). 2017 Sep 1;39(3):574-582. doi: 10.1093/pubmed/fdw095. 
  10. Kypridemos, C., Allen, K., Hickey, G. L., Guzman Castillo, M., Bandosz, P., Buchan, I.,O'Flaherty, M. (2016). Cardiovascular screening to reduce the burden from cardiovascular disease: microsimulation study to quantify policy options. BMJ, 353. doi:10.1136/bmj.i2793 DOI: 10.1136/bmj.i2793
  11. Collins, B. J., Kypridemos, C., PEARSON‐STUTTARD, J., Huang, Y., Bandosz, P., Wilde, P., O'Flaherty, M. (2019). FDA Sodium Reduction Targets and the Food Industry: Are There Incentives to Reformulate? Microsimulation Cost-Effectiveness Analysis. The Milbank Quarterly, 97(03), 858-880. doi:10.1111/1468-0009.12402 DOI: 10.1111/1468-0009.12402
  12. Collins B, Kypridemos C, Cookson R, Parvulescu P, McHale P, Guzman-Castillo M, Bandosz P, Bromley H, Capewell S, O'Flaherty M. Universal or targeted cardiovascular screening? Modelling study using a sector-specific distributional cost effectiveness analysis. Prev Med. 2020 Jan;130:105879. doi: 10.1016/j.ypmed.2019.105879. Epub 2019 Oct 31. 
  13. Huang Y, Kypridemos C, Liu J, Lee Y, Pearson-Stuttard J, Collins B, Bandosz P, Capewell S, Whitsel L, Wilde P, Mozaffarian D, O'Flaherty M, Micha R; Food-PRICE (Policy Review and Intervention Cost-Effectiveness) Project. Cost-Effectiveness of the US Food and Drug Administration Added Sugar Labeling Policy for Improving Diet and Health. Circulation. 2019 Jun 4;139(23):2613-2624. doi: 10.1161/CIRCULATIONAHA.118.036751

Equity

  1. Collins B, Kypridemos C, Cookson R, Parvulescu P, McHale P, Guzman-Castillo M, Bandosz P, Bromley H, Capewell S, O'Flaherty M. Universal or targeted cardiovascular screening? Modelling study using a sector-specific distributional cost effectiveness analysis. Prev Med. 2020 Jan;130:105879. doi: 10.1016/j.ypmed.2019.105879. Epub 2019 Oct 31
  2. Kypridemos, C., Allen, K., Hickey, G. L., Guzman Castillo, M., Bandosz, P., Buchan, I.,  O'Flaherty, M. (2016). Cardiovascular screening to reduce the burden from cardiovascular disease: microsimulation study to quantify policy options. BMJ, 353. doi:10.1136/bmj.i2793DOI: 10.1136/bmj.i2793
  3. Allen, K., Pearson-Stuttard, J., Hooton, W., Diggle, P., Capewell, S., & O'Flaherty, M. (2015). Potential of trans fats policies to reduce socioeconomic inequalities in mortality from coronary heart disease in England: cost effectiveness modelling study. The BMJ, 351. doi:10.1136/bmj.h4583 DOI: 10.1136/bmj.h4583
  4. Allen, K., Gillespie, D. O. S., Guzman-Castillo, M., Diggle, P. J., Capewell, S., & O'Flaherty, M. (2016). Future trends and inequalities in premature coronary deaths in England: Modelling study. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CARDIOLOGY, 203, 290-297. doi:10.1016/j.ijcard.2015.10.077 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijcard.2015.10.077
  5. Liu A, Guzman Castillo M, Capewell S, Lucy J, O'Flaherty M. Reduction in myocardial infarction admissions in Liverpool after the smoking ban: potential socioeconomic implications for policymaking. BMJ Open. 2013 Nov 25;3(11):e003307. doi: 10.1136/bmjopen-2013-003307. 
  6. Collins B, Kypridemos C, Cookson R, Parvulescu P, McHale P, Guzman-Castillo M, Capewell S, O’Flaherty M.  Universal or targeted cardiovascular screening? Modelling study using a sector-specific distributional cost effectiveness analysis. Prev Med. 2020 Jan;130:105879.
  7. Lancet 2011 - Rapid mortality falls after risk-factor changes in populations - PubMed (nih.gov)

Editorials / position papers 

  1. GRADE Guidelines 30: the GRADE approach to assessing the certainty of modeled evidence-An overview in the context of health decision-making (Journal article)
  2. Brozek, J. L., Canelo-Aybar, C., Akl, E. A., Bowen, J. M., Bucher, J., Chiu, W. A., Schunemann, H. J. (2021). GRADE Guidelines 30: the GRADE approach to assessing the certainty of modeled evidence-An overview in the context of health decision-making. JOURNAL OF CLINICAL EPIDEMIOLOGY, 129, 138-150. doi:10.1016/j.jclinepi.2020.09.018 DOI: 10.1016/j.jclinepi.2020.09.018 
  3. Goff DCJ, Khan SS, Lloyd-Jones D, Arnett DK, Carnethon MR, Labarthe DR, et al. Bending the Curve in Cardiovascular Disease Mortality: Bethesda + 40 and Beyond. Circulation. 2021 Feb 23;143(8):837–51.
  4. Multimorbidity: the case for prevention - PubMed (nih.gov)
  5. Growing urban and rural inequalities: looking at the heart to reduce the gap. (Journal article).  O'Flaherty, M. (2021). Growing urban and rural inequalities: looking at the heart to reduce the gap. . International journal of epidemiology, dyab221. doi:10.1093/ije/dyab221.DOI: 10.1093/ije/dyab221

Selected publications

  1. C. Parajára, Z. Colombet, Í.E. Machado, M.C. Menezes, E. Verly-Jr, M. O'Flaherty, A.L. Meireles. Mortality attributable to diets low in fruits, vegetables, and whole grains in Brazil in 2019: evidencing regional health inequalities. Public Health 2023 (224),123-130
  2. Yuntao Chen, Marzieh Araghi, Piotr Bandosz, Martin J Shipley, Sara Ahmadi-Abhari, Sophia Lobanov-Rostovsky, Tishya Venkatraman, Mika Kivimaki, Martin O'Flaherty, Eric J Brunner. Impact of hypertension prevalence trend on mortality and burdens of dementia and disability in England and Wales to 2060: a simulation modelling study. The Lancet Healthy Longevity 2023 org/10.1016/S2666-7568(23)00129-0.
  3. Helena Kames Kjeldgaard, Kristin Holvik, Bo Abrahamsen, Grethe S Tell, Haakon E Meyer, Martin O’Flaherty. Explaining declining hip fracture rates in Norway: A population-based modelling study. Lancet Regional Health (Europe) 2023 May 8;30:100643. 
  4. Pate, Alexander; Sperrin, Matthew; Riley, Richard; Sergeant, Jamie; Van Staa, Tjeerd; Peek, Niels; Mamas, Mamas; Lip, Gregory; O'Flaherty, Martin; Buchan, Iain; Martin, Glen. Developing multivariate prediction models to estimate the joint risk of two survival outcomes: comparison of techniques. Statistics in Medicine 2023 (accepted 22/03/23)
  5. Breeze P et al. Guidance on the Use of Complex Systems Models for Economic Evaluations of Public Health Interventions. Health Econ. 2023 Jul;32(7):1603-1625
  6. Vassiliou VS, Tsampasian V, Abreu A, Kurpas D, Cavarretta E, O’Flaherty M, et al. Promotion of healthy nutrition in primary and secondary cardiovascular disease prevention: A Clinical Consensus Statement from the European Association of Preventive Cardiology. Eur J Prev Cardiol. 2023 Feb 27;zwad057.
  7. Robinson E, Polden M, Langfield T, Clarke K, Calvert L, Colombet Z, et al. Socioeconomic position and the effect of energy labelling on consumer behaviour: a systematic review and meta-analysis. Int J Behav Nutr Phys Act. 2023 Feb 6;20(1):10.
  8. Kiyoshige E, Ogata S, O’Flaherty M, Capewell S, Takegami M, Iihara K, et al. Projections of future coronary heart disease and stroke mortality in Japan until 2040: a Bayesian age-period-cohort analysis. Lancet Reg Health West Pac. 2023 Feb;31:100637.
  9. Vasconcelos Leitão Moreira P, da Costa Pereira de Arruda Neta A, Leite de Lima Ferreira FE, de Araújo JM, da Costa Louzada ML, Lira Formiga Cavalcanti de Lima R, et al. Projected impact of change in the percentage of energy from each NOVA group intake on cardiovascular disease mortality in Brazil: a modelling study. BMJ Open. 2022 Apr 26;12(4):e057953.
  10. O’Flaherty M, Head A. Reassessing measures of population ageing as a tool for driving healthy longevity. Lancet Healthy Longev. 2022 May;3(5):e310–1.
  11. O’Flaherty M. Commentary: Growing urban and rural inequalities: looking at the heart to reduce the gap. Int J Epidemiol. 2022 Jan 6;50(6):1978–80.
  12. Kjeldgaard HK, Meyer HE, O’Flaherty M, Apalset EM, Dahl C, Emaus N, et al. Impact of Total Hip Replacements on the Incidence of Hip Fractures in Norway During 1999-2019. A Norwegian Epidemiologic Osteoporosis Studies (NOREPOS) Study. J Bone Miner Res. 2022 Oct;37(10):1936–43.
  13. Huang V, Head A, Hyseni L, O’Flaherty M, Buchan I, Capewell S, et al. Identifying best modelling practices for tobacco control policy simulations: a systematic review and a novel quality assessment framework. Tob Control. 2022 Jan 11;tobaccocontrol-2021-056825.
  14. Fernández-Escobar C, Díez J, Martínez-García A, Bilal U, O’Flaherty M, Franco M. Food availability and affordability in a Mediterranean urban context: associations by store type and area-level socio-economic status. Public Health Nutr. 2022 Oct 24;1–9.
  15. Colombet Z, O’Flaherty M, Capewell S. England’s food strategy: missed opportunity to use fiscal food policy levers to improve diets and reduce health inequalities. BMJ. 2022 Jul 25;378:o1835.
  16. Collins B, Bandosz P, Guzman-Castillo M, Pearson-Stuttard J, Stoye G, McCauley J, et al. What will the cardiovascular disease slowdown cost? Modelling the impact of CVD trends on dementia, disability, and economic costs in England and Wales from 2020-2029. PLoS One. 2022;17(6):e0268766.
  17. Bjoernsbo KS, Joensen AM, Joergensen T, Lundbye-Christensen S, Bysted A, Christensen T, Capewell S, O’Flaherty Ml. Quantifying benefits of the Danish transfat ban for coronary heart disease mortality 1991-2007: Socioeconomic analysis using the IMPACTsec model. PLoS One. 2022;17(8):e0272744.
  18. Sexton E, Donnelly NA, Merriman NA, Hickey A, Wren MA, O’Flaherty M, et al. StrokeCog Markov Model: Projected Prevalent and Incident Cases of Stroke and Poststroke Cognitive Impairment to 2035 in Ireland. 2021 Dec;52(12):3961–9.
  19. O’Flaherty M, Lloyd-Williams F, Capewell S, Boland A, Maden M, Collins B, et al. Modelling tool to support decision-making in the NHS Health Check programme: workshops, systematic review and co-production with users. Health Technol Assess. 2021 May;25(35):1–234.
  20. Nilson EAF, Pearson-Stuttard J, Collins B, Guzman-Castillo M, Capewell S, O’Flaherty M, et al. Estimating the health and economic effects of the voluntary sodium reduction targets in Brazil: microsimulation analysis. BMC Med. 2021 Sep 29;19(1):225.
  21. Moreira PVL, de Arruda Neta A da CP, Ferreira SS, Ferreira FELL, de Lima RLFC, de Toledo Vianna RP, O’Flaherty M. Coronary heart disease and stroke mortality trends in Brazil 2000-2018. PLoS One. 2021;16(9):e0253639.
  22. Lloyd-Williams F, Masters R, Hyseni L, Denny ES, O’Flaherty M, Capewell S. The QUEST for Effective and Equitable Policies to Prevent Non-communicable Diseases: Co-Production Lessons From Stakeholder Workshops. Int J Health Policy Manag. 2021 Oct 1;10(10):638–46.
  23. Huang V, Head A, Hyseni L, O’Flaherty M, Buchan I, Capewell S, et al. Tobacco Control Policy Simulation Models: Protocol for a Systematic Methodological Review. JMIR Res Protoc. 2021 Jul 26;10(7):e26854.
  24. Head A, Fleming K, Kypridemos C, Pearson-Stuttard J, O’Flaherty M. Multimorbidity: the case for prevention. J Epidemiol Community Health. 2021 Mar;75(3):242–4.
  25. Head A, Fleming K, Kypridemos C, Schofield P, Pearson-Stuttard J, O’Flaherty M. Inequalities in incident and prevalent multimorbidity in England, 2004-19: a population-based, descriptive study. Lancet Healthy Longev. 2021 Aug;2(8):e489–97.
  26. Goff DCJ, Khan SS, Lloyd-Jones D, Arnett DK, Carnethon MR, Labarthe DR, et al. Bending the Curve in Cardiovascular Disease Mortality: Bethesda + 40 and Beyond. 2021 Feb 23;143(8):837–51.
  27. Brozek JL, Canelo-Aybar C, Akl EA, Bowen JM, Bucher J, Chiu WA, et al. GRADE Guidelines 30: the GRADE approach to assessing the certainty of modeled evidence-An overview in the context of health decision-making. J Clin Epidemiol. 2021 Jan;129:138–50.
  28. Shah NS, Molsberry R, Rana JS, Sidney S, Capewell S, O’Flaherty M, et al. Heterogeneous trends in burden of heart disease mortality by subtypes in the United States, 1999-2018: observational analysis of vital statistics. 2020 Aug 13;370:m2688.
  29. Shah NS, Lloyd-Jones DM, Kandula NR, Huffman MD, Capewell S, O’Flaherty M, et al. Adverse Trends in Premature Cardiometabolic Mortality in the United States, 1999 to 2018. J Am Heart Assoc. 2020 Dec;9(23):e018213.
  30. Seferidi P, Laverty AA, Collins B, Bandosz P, Capewell S, O’Flaherty M, et al. Potential impacts of post-Brexit agricultural policy on fruit and vegetable intake and cardiovascular disease in England: a modelling study. BMJ Nutr Prev Health. 2020;3(1):3–10.
  31. Salgado MV, O’Flaherty M, Mejía R. The role of computer simulation models in the design of public policies. Medicina (B Aires). 2020;80(6):681–4.
  32. Rücker V, Heuschmann PU, O’Flaherty M, Weingärtner M, Hess M, Sedlak C, et al. Twenty-Year Time Trends in Long-Term Case-Fatality and Recurrence Rates After Ischemic Stroke Stratified by Etiology. 2020 Sep;51(9):2778–85.
  33. Mendizabal M, Testa P, Rojas M, Colaci CS, Elías S, Nicolini P, OFlaherty M et al. Pilot study using the ECHO model to enhance linkage to care for patients with hepatitis C in the custodial setting. J Viral Hepat. 2020 Dec;27(12):1430–6.
  34. Marasigan V, Perry I, Bennett K, Balanda K, Capewell S, O’ Flaherty M, et al. Explaining the fall in Coronary Heart Disease mortality in the Republic of Ireland between 2000 and 2015 - IMPACT modelling study. Int J Cardiol. 2020 Jul 1;310:159–61.
  35. Lloyd-Williams F, Hyseni L, Guzman-Castillo M, Kypridemos C, Collins B, Capewell S, O’Flaherty M. Evaluating stakeholder involvement in building a decision support tool for NHS health checks: co-producing the WorkHORSE study. BMC Med Inform Decis Mak. 2020 Aug 10;20(1):182.
  36. Hyseni L, Guzman-Castillo M, Kypridemos C, Collins B, Schwaller E, Capewell S, O’Flaherty M. Engaging with stakeholders to inform the development of a decision-support tool for the NHS health check programme: qualitative study. BMC Health Serv Res. 2020 May 11;20(1):394.
  37. Harrison SL, O’Flaherty M, Lip GYH. Revisiting the dynamic risks of incident atrial fibrillation: does the use of nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs contribute to risk? 2020 Feb 1;113(2):77–8.
  38. Collins B, Kypridemos C, Cookson R, Parvulescu P, McHale P, Guzman-Castillo M, Capewell S, O’Flaherty M. Universal or targeted cardiovascular screening? Modelling study using a sector-specific distributional cost effectiveness analysis. Prev Med. 2020 Jan;130:105879.
  39. Bandosz P, Ahmadi-Abhari S, Guzman-Castillo M, Pearson-Stuttard J, Collins B, Whittaker H, Brunner E, O’Flaherty M . Potential impact of diabetes prevention on mortality and future burden of dementia and disability: a modelling study. 2020 Jan;63(1):104–15.
  40. Arroyo-Quiroz C, O’Flaherty M, Guzman-Castillo M, Capewell S, Chuquiure-Valenzuela E, Jerjes-Sanchez C, et al. Explaining the increment in coronary heart disease mortality in Mexico between 2000 and 2012. PLoS One. 2020;15(12):e0242930.
  41. Arroyo-Quiroz C, Barrientos-Gutierrez T, O’Flaherty M, Guzman-Castillo M, Palacio-Mejia L, Osorio-Saldarriaga E, et al. Coronary heart disease mortality is decreasing in Argentina, and Colombia, but keeps increasing in Mexico: a time trend study. BMC Public Health. 2020 Feb 3;20(1):162.
  42. Vicens J, Perman G, Aliperti V, Masson W, Schargrodsky H, Pramparo P, O’Flaherty M [Analysis of the decrease in deaths due to coronary disease between 1995 and 2010. IMPACT CHD Argentina Study]. Rev Fac Cien Med Univ Nac Cordoba. 2019 Jun 19;76(2):92–100.
  43. Sobers NP, Unwin N, Samuels TA, Capewell S, O’Flaherty M, Critchley JA. Adverse risk factor trends limit gains in coronary heart disease mortality in Barbados: 1990-2012. PLoS One. 2019;14(4):e0215392.
  44. Shah NS, Lloyd-Jones DM, O’Flaherty M, Capewell S, Kershaw KN, Carnethon M, et al. Trends in Cardiometabolic Mortality in the United States, 1999-2017. 2019 Aug 27;322(8):780–2.
  45. Seferidi P, Laverty AA, Pearson-Stuttard J, Bandosz P, Collins B, Guzman-Castillo M, O’Flaherty M, Millett C. . Impacts of Brexit on fruit and vegetable intake and cardiovascular disease in England: a modelling study. BMJ Open. 2019 Jan 28;9(1):e026966.
  46. Saidi O, Zoghlami N, Bennett KE, Mosquera PA, Malouche D, Capewell S, Ben Roadhme, O’Flaherty M. Explaining income-related inequalities in cardiovascular risk factors in Tunisian adults during the last decade: comparison of sensitivity analysis of logistic regression and Wagstaff decomposition analysis. Int J Equity Health. 2019 Nov 15;18(1):177.
  47. Saidi O, O’Flaherty M, Zoghlami N, Malouche D, Capewell S, Critchley JA, et al. Comparing Strategies to Prevent Stroke and Ischemic Heart Disease in the Tunisian Population: Markov Modeling Approach Using a Comprehensive Sensitivity Analysis Comput Math Methods Med. 2019;2019:2123079.
  48. Saidi O, Hajjem S, Zoghlami N, Aounallah-Skhiri H, Ben Mansour N, Hsairi M, et al. Premature mortality attributable to smoking among Tunisian men in 2009. Tob Induc Dis. 2019;17:77.
  49. Phillimore P, Sibai AM, Rizk A, Maziak W, Unal B, Abu Rmeileh N, et al. Context-led capacity building in time of crisis: fostering non-communicable diseases (NCD) research skills in the Mediterranean Middle East and North Africa. Glob Health Action. 2019;12(1):1569838.
  50. Ogata S, Nishimura K, Guzman-Castillo M, Sumita Y, Nakai M, Nakao YM, O’Flaherty M. Explaining the decline in coronary heart disease mortality rates in Japan: Contributions of changes in risk factors and evidence-based treatments between 1980 and 2012. Int J Cardiol. 2019 Sep 15;291:183–8.
  51. Mendizabal M, Ridruejo E, Ceballos S, Sixto M, Billordo A, Gadea C, O’Flaherty Met al. The ECHO model proved to be a useful tool to increase clinicians’ self-effectiveness for care of patients with Hepatitis C in Argentina. J Viral Hepat. 2019 Nov;26(11):1284–92.
  52. Laverty AA, Kypridemos C, Seferidi P, Vamos EP, Pearson-Stuttard J, Collins B, O’Flaherty M, Millett C. l. Quantifying the impact of the Public Health Responsibility Deal on salt intake, cardiovascular disease and gastric cancer burdens: interrupted time series and microsimulation study. J Epidemiol Community Health. 2019 Sep;73(9):881–7.
  53. Huang Y, Kypridemos C, Liu J, Lee Y, Pearson-Stuttard J, Collins B, Micha S, O’Flaherty M, Mozzafarian D. Cost-Effectiveness of the US Food and Drug Administration Added Sugar Labeling Policy for Improving Diet and Health. Circulation. 2019 Jun 4;139(23):2613–24.
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