Detail of Titanic building, Belfast

The Ireland/Northern Ireland Protocol: Consensus or Conflict?

This University of Liverpool-commissioned survey, led by Professor Peter Shirlow, Director and Chair of the Institute of Irish Studies, has found that the Protocol is not a top priority for most people across Northern Ireland.

The Social Market Research (SMR) conducted the survey in mid to late October 2021 of more than a thousand people across every council area in Northern Ireland. The survey has highlighted a pragmatic approach amongst many including support for Protocol mitigation measures put forward by the EU and UK government, aimed at overcoming many of the challenges and evidencing a willingness for further negotiations/discussions.

Download the full report: The Ireland/Northern Ireland Protocol: Consensus or Conflict [PDF 0.7MB]

Findings summary

The survey found high levels of inter-community consensus that would suggest significant shares of respondents wish to see practical resolution and more frictionless goods movement:

  • Regarding the EU’s proposal on pharmaceuticals a mere 5.6% opposed. 71.9% of unionists, 80.7% of nationalists and 66.5% of neither agreed that this was a positive development
  • 2% disagreed with the UK government’s proposal regarding the movement of goods with agreement sitting at 84.5% among unionists, 72.1% of nationalists and 65.3% neither.

The survey also found inter-community majorities regarding stability of the Northern Ireland Assembly:

  • Regarding the Northern Ireland Assembly should decide by simple majority (Articles 5-10 of the Protocol) whether the Protocol should remain 52.6% of unionists, 67.7% of nationalists and 52.7% of neither agreed.
  • Regarding whether the Northern Ireland Assembly and Executive should remain in place until the election in May 2022, 65% of respondents agreed compared to 9.6% who disagreed. A minority of DUP (12.8%) and UUP (6.7%) voters disagreed.

There was a 54.9% acceptance of the EU’s proposal on food, plant and animal health goods movement and 56.6% of overall support for the package of mitigations announced by the EU in October 2021.

  • The survey did not observe – among those who are Unionist - a majority favouring the EU’s proposal on food etc. but 45.9% are prepared to accept compared to 36.3% who stated the proposal was unacceptable.
  • Regarding the overall package of mitigations announced by the EU in October – among those who wish to remain in the UK – 39.0% agreed to accept and move on compared to 32.0% who stated reject and renegotiate.

Consensus not crisis

This data evidences consensus or near consensus and not a crisis. It does not support the invocation of Article 16 due to societal difficulties. Instead, we find evidence of inter-community consensus, with consent achievable when negotiations/discussions explore - and more importantly - offer alternative practical resolutions. 

This takes us back to the point that those who live in Northern Ireland seek outcomes presented by the EU and UK government that do not undermine the prioritisation of health, Covid recovery and the economy.

Regarding the survey findings, Professor Peter Shirlow Director of the Institute of Irish Studies noted:

‘We find evidence of inter-community consensus, with consent achievable when negotiations/discussions explore - and more importantly - offer alternative practical resolutions. 

‘It is evident that respondents seek proportionality in North-South and East-West trade relationships. There is no evidence here of mass rejection, even among unionists, of the mitigations/easements advanced by the EU. Similarly, there is no nationalist/republican rejection of key UK government proposals. This is not what is assumed within media and political commentary.

‘The inter-community consensus located within this report is a point of renewal for ongoing mitigations, and confirmation that resolution will further develop that societal consensus and social cohesion. Complex issues cannot be reduced to sound bites, Tweets and headlines’

Download the full report: The Ireland/Northern Ireland Protocol: Consensus or Conflict [PDF 0.7MB]

We find evidence of inter-community consensus, with consent achievable when negotiations/discussions explore - and more importantly - offer alternative practical resolutions.

Professor Peter Shirlow Director of the Institute of Irish Studies

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