Liverpool Centre for Mathematics in Healthcare

Modelling the dynamics of pathological processes associated with Alzheimer’s disease - a series of unfortunate events: Dr Christoforos Hadjichrysanthou (Imperial College, London)


* To be re-scheduled *


Title: Modelling the dynamics of pathological processes associated with Alzheimer's disease - a series of unfortunate events

Abstract: Quantifying changes in the levels of biological and cognitive markers as healthy individuals progress to Alzheimer’s disease (AD) and dementia, provides a template for assessing the impact of potential therapies. Challenges include the sparsity and heterogeneity of the available observational data, usually collected over relatively short periods of time, and the lack of information about the time at which each marker is measured in relation to disease progression.

A novel method to help overcome such challenges and facilitate the characterisation of the long-term progression of AD, from the pre-symptomatic stage to dementia, will be described. This is founded on a range of mathematical and statistical tools, including multi-state Markov and generalised linear mixed models. Based on the clinical diagnosis and a set of demographic and genetic factors, the expected time from the point of each measurement until the onset of clinical symptoms is estimated. The times are then used to synchronise short-term individual data onto a disease progression timeline and estimate the long-term population-level temporal dynamics of a range of disease markers, from biochemical to neuropsychological and imaging markers.

The study provides insights into the natural history of AD and the asynchronous pathophysiological changes that may occur up to three decades before cognitive symptoms become apparent.

Biography: Dr Hadjichrysanthou is based at Imperial College, London and undertakes research with the London Centre for Neglected Tropical Disease Research (LCNTDR), an innovative research collaboration between Imperial College London, the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, the Natural History Museum, the Royal Veterinary College.  The London Centre brings together leading experts to conduct cutting-edge research to build the evidence base around the design, implementation and evaluation of neglected tropical disease (NTD) control and elimination programmes.