Photo of Prof Ian McHale

Prof Ian McHale

Professor of Sports Analytics Operations and Supply Chain Management

Publications

2019

Plus-Minus Player Ratings for Soccer (Journal article)

Kharrat, T., Peña, J. L., & McHale, I. G. (2019). Plus-Minus Player Ratings for Soccer. European Journal of Operational Research. doi:10.1016/j.ejor.2019.11.026

DOI: 10.1016/j.ejor.2019.11.026

Using statistics to detect match fixing in sport (Journal article)

Forrest, D., & McHale, I. G. (2019). Using statistics to detect match fixing in sport. IMA JOURNAL OF MANAGEMENT MATHEMATICS, 30(4), 431-449. doi:10.1093/imaman/dpz008

DOI: 10.1093/imaman/dpz008

On outcome uncertainty and scoring rates in sport: The case of international rugby union (Journal article)

Scarf, P., Parma, R., & McHale, I. (2019). On outcome uncertainty and scoring rates in sport: The case of international rugby union. European Journal of Operational Research, 273(2), 721-730. doi:10.1016/j.ejor.2018.08.021

DOI: 10.1016/j.ejor.2018.08.021

A generalized non-linear forecasting model for limited overs international cricket (Journal article)

Asif, M., & McHale, I. G. (2019). A generalized non-linear forecasting model for limited overs international cricket. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF FORECASTING, 35(2), 634-640. doi:10.1016/j.ijforecast.2018.12.003

DOI: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2018.12.003

Editorial: Forecasting in sports (Journal article)

McHale, I., & Swartz, T. (2019). Editorial: Forecasting in sports. International Journal of Forecasting, 35(2), 710-711. doi:10.1016/j.ijforecast.2019.01.002

DOI: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2019.01.002

Flexible Regression Models for Count Data Based on Renewal Processes: The Countr Package (Journal article)

Kharrat, T., Boshnakov, G. N., McHale, I., & Baker, R. (n.d.). Flexible Regression Models for Count Data Based on Renewal Processes: The Countr Package. Journal of Statistical Software, 90(13). doi:10.18637/jss.v090.i13

DOI: 10.18637/jss.v090.i13

2018

Time-varying ratings for international football teams (Journal article)

Baker, R. D., & McHale, I. G. (2018). Time-varying ratings for international football teams. EUROPEAN JOURNAL OF OPERATIONAL RESEARCH, 267(2), 659-666. doi:10.1016/j.ejor.2017.11.042

DOI: 10.1016/j.ejor.2017.11.042

The Use of Forensic Statistics to Identify Corruption in Sport (Chapter)

McHale, I. G. (2018). The Use of Forensic Statistics to Identify Corruption in Sport. In The Palgrave Handbook on the Economics of Manipulation in Sport (pp. 181-198). Springer International Publishing. doi:10.1007/978-3-319-77389-6_10

DOI: 10.1007/978-3-319-77389-6_10

Identifying key players in soccer teams using network analysis and pass difficulty (Journal article)

McHale, I. G., & Relton, S. D. (2018). Identifying key players in soccer teams using network analysis and pass difficulty. EUROPEAN JOURNAL OF OPERATIONAL RESEARCH, 268(1), 339-347. doi:10.1016/j.ejor.2018.01.018

DOI: 10.1016/j.ejor.2018.01.018

2017

A bivariate Weibull count model for forecasting association football scores (Journal article)

Boshnakov, G., Kharrat, T., & McHale, I. G. (2017). A bivariate Weibull count model for forecasting association football scores. International Journal of Forecasting, 33(2), 458-466. doi:10.1016/j.ijforecast.2016.11.006

DOI: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2016.11.006

An empirical Bayes model for time-varying paired comparisons ratings: Who is the greatest women’s tennis player? (Journal article)

Baker, R. D., & McHale, I. G. (2017). An empirical Bayes model for time-varying paired comparisons ratings: Who is the greatest women’s tennis player?. European Journal of Operational Research, 258(1), 328-333. doi:10.1016/j.ejor.2016.08.043

DOI: 10.1016/j.ejor.2016.08.043

Handbook of Statistical Methods and Analyses in Sports (Chapter)

Albert, J. (n.d.). Handbook of Statistical Methods and Analyses in Sports. Chapman and Hall/CRC. doi:10.1201/9781315166070

DOI: 10.1201/9781315166070

2016

An analysis of country medal shares in individual sports at the Olympics (Journal article)

Forrest, D., McHale, I. G., Sanz, I., & Tena, J. D. (2017). An analysis of country medal shares in individual sports at the Olympics. EUROPEAN SPORT MANAGEMENT QUARTERLY, 17(2), 117-131. doi:10.1080/16184742.2016.1248463

DOI: 10.1080/16184742.2016.1248463

An empirical Bayes' procedure for ranking players in Ryder Cup golf (Journal article)

Baker, R. D., & McHale, I. G. (2016). An empirical Bayes' procedure for ranking players in Ryder Cup golf. Journal of Applied Statistics, 43(3), 387-395. doi:10.1080/02664763.2015.1043869

DOI: 10.1080/02664763.2015.1043869

Beyond completion rate: evaluating the passing ability of footballers (Journal article)

Szczepański, Ł., & McHale, I. (2016). Beyond completion rate: evaluating the passing ability of footballers. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series A (Statistics in Society), 179(2), 513-533. doi:10.1111/rssa.12115

DOI: 10.1111/rssa.12115

In-play forecasting of win probability in One-Day International cricket: A dynamic logistic regression model (Journal article)

Asif, M., & McHale, I. G. (2016). In-play forecasting of win probability in One-Day International cricket: A dynamic logistic regression model. International Journal of Forecasting, 32(1), 34-43. doi:10.1016/j.ijforecast.2015.02.005

DOI: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2015.02.005

2015

The Economics of Competitive Sports (Chapter)

Rodríguez, P., Késenne, S., & Koning, R. (2015). The Economics of Competitive Sports. Edward Elgar Publishing. doi:10.4337/9781783474769

DOI: 10.4337/9781783474769

Deterministic Evolution of Strength in Multiple Comparisons Models: Who is the Greatest Golfer? (Journal article)

Baker, R. D., & McHale, I. G. (2015). Deterministic Evolution of Strength in Multiple Comparisons Models: Who is the Greatest Golfer?. Scandinavian Journal of Statistics, 42(1), 180-196. doi:10.1111/sjos.12101

DOI: 10.1111/sjos.12101

Time varying ratings in association football: the all-time greatest team is.. (Journal article)

Baker, R. D., & McHale, I. G. (2015). Time varying ratings in association football: the all-time greatest team is... Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series A (Statistics in Society), 178(2), 481-492. doi:10.1111/rssa.12060

DOI: 10.1111/rssa.12060

2014

Econometric modelling of match results and scores (Chapter)

McHale, I., & Baker, R. (n.d.). Econometric modelling of match results and scores. In Unknown Book (pp. 130-140). Edward Elgar Publishing. doi:10.4337/9781781003176.00015

DOI: 10.4337/9781781003176.00015

A dynamic paired comparisons model: Who is the greatest tennis player? (Journal article)

Baker, R. D., & McHale, I. G. (2014). A dynamic paired comparisons model: Who is the greatest tennis player?. European Journal of Operational Research, 236(2), 677-684. doi:10.1016/j.ejor.2013.12.028

DOI: 10.1016/j.ejor.2013.12.028

A mixed effects model for identifying goal scoring ability of footballers (Journal article)

McHale, I. G., & Szczepański, Ł. (2014). A mixed effects model for identifying goal scoring ability of footballers. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series A (Statistics in Society), 177(2), 397-417. doi:10.1111/rssa.12015

DOI: 10.1111/rssa.12015

To lead or not to lead: analysis of the sprint in track cycling (Journal article)

Moffatt, J., Scarf, P., Passfield, L., McHale, I. G., & Zhang, K. (2014). To lead or not to lead: analysis of the sprint in track cycling. Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, 10(2). doi:10.1515/jqas-2013-0112

DOI: 10.1515/jqas-2013-0112

2013

Happiness and Job Satisfaction in a Casino-Dominated Economy (Journal article)

Zeng, Z., Forrest, D., & McHale, I. G. (2013). Happiness and Job Satisfaction in a Casino-Dominated Economy. Journal of Gambling Studies, 29(3), 471-490. doi:10.1007/s10899-012-9318-9

DOI: 10.1007/s10899-012-9318-9

Optimal Betting Under Parameter Uncertainty: Improving the Kelly Criterion (Journal article)

Baker, R. D., & McHale, I. G. (2013). Optimal Betting Under Parameter Uncertainty: Improving the Kelly Criterion. Decision Analysis, 10(3), 189-199. doi:10.1287/deca.2013.0271

DOI: 10.1287/deca.2013.0271

A modified Duckworth–Lewis method for adjusting targets in interrupted limited overs cricket (Journal article)

McHale, I. G., & Asif, M. (2013). A modified Duckworth–Lewis method for adjusting targets in interrupted limited overs cricket. European Journal of Operational Research, 225(2), 353-362. doi:10.1016/j.ejor.2012.09.036

DOI: 10.1016/j.ejor.2012.09.036

Forecasting exact scores in National Football League games (Journal article)

Baker, R. D., & McHale, I. G. (2013). Forecasting exact scores in National Football League games. International Journal of Forecasting, 29(1), 122-130. doi:10.1016/j.ijforecast.2012.07.002

DOI: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2012.07.002

2012

Gambling and problem gambling among young adolescents in Great Britain. (Journal article)

Forrest, D., & McHale, I. G. (2012). Gambling and problem gambling among young adolescents in Great Britain.. Journal of gambling studies, 28(4), 607-622. doi:10.1007/s10899-011-9277-6

DOI: 10.1007/s10899-011-9277-6

On the Development of a Soccer Player Performance Rating System for the English Premier League (Journal article)

McHale, I. G., Scarf, P. A., & Folker, D. E. (2012). On the Development of a Soccer Player Performance Rating System for the English Premier League. Interfaces, 42(4), 339-351. doi:10.1287/inte.1110.0589

DOI: 10.1287/inte.1110.0589

Playing the lottery with a little bit of stats know-how… (Journal article)

McHale, I., & Baker, R. D. (2012). Playing the lottery with a little bit of stats know-how…. Significance, 9(1), 25-28. doi:10.1111/j.1740-9713.2012.00540.x

DOI: 10.1111/j.1740-9713.2012.00540.x

Estimating Match and World Cup Winning Probabilities (Chapter)

Koning, R. H., & McHale, I. G. (n.d.). Estimating Match and World Cup Winning Probabilities. Edward Elgar Publishing. doi:10.4337/9780857930279.00018

DOI: 10.4337/9780857930279.00018

Explaining and Forecasting National Team Medals Totals at the Summer Olympic Games (Chapter)

Forrest, D., Ceballos, A., Flores, R., McHale, I. G., Sanz, I., & Tena, J. D. (n.d.). Explaining and Forecasting National Team Medals Totals at the Summer Olympic Games. Edward Elgar Publishing. doi:10.4337/9780857930279.00020

DOI: 10.4337/9780857930279.00020

2011

Subjective Well-being and Engagement in Sport: Evidence from England (Chapter)

Forrest, D., & McHale, I. G. (n.d.). Subjective Well-being and Engagement in Sport: Evidence from England. Edward Elgar Publishing. doi:10.4337/9780857930149.00014

DOI: 10.4337/9780857930149.00014

Investigating the behavioural characteristics of lottery players by using a combination preference model for conscious selection (Journal article)

Baker, R., & McHale, I. G. (2011). Investigating the behavioural characteristics of lottery players by using a combination preference model for conscious selection. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series A (Statistics in Society), 174(4), 1071-1086. doi:10.1111/j.1467-985x.2011.00693.x

DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-985x.2011.00693.x

MAINTAINING MARKET POSITION: TEAM PERFORMANCE, REVENUE AND WAGE EXPENDITURE IN THE ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE (Journal article)

Carmichael, F., McHale, I., & Thomas, D. (2011). MAINTAINING MARKET POSITION: TEAM PERFORMANCE, REVENUE AND WAGE EXPENDITURE IN THE ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE. Bulletin of Economic Research, 63(4), 464-497. doi:10.1111/j.1467-8586.2009.00340.x

DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-8586.2009.00340.x

Modelling the dependence of goals scored by opposing teams in international soccer matches (Journal article)

McHale, I., & Scarf, P. (2011). Modelling the dependence of goals scored by opposing teams in international soccer matches. Statistical Modelling: An International Journal, 11(3), 219-236. doi:10.1177/1471082x1001100303

DOI: 10.1177/1471082x1001100303

A Bradley-Terry type model for forecasting tennis match results (Journal article)

McHale, I., & Morton, A. (2011). A Bradley-Terry type model for forecasting tennis match results. International Journal of Forecasting, 27(2), 619-630. doi:10.1016/j.ijforecast.2010.04.004

DOI: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2010.04.004

2010

Habit and long memory in UK lottery sales (Journal article)

McHale, I. G., & Peel, D. A. (2010). Habit and long memory in UK lottery sales. Economics Letters, 109(1), 7-10. doi:10.1016/j.econlet.2010.07.007

DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2010.07.007

Assessing the fairness of the golf handicapping system in the UK. (Journal article)

McHale, I. G. (2010). Assessing the fairness of the golf handicapping system in the UK.. Journal of sports sciences, 28(10), 1033-1041. doi:10.1080/02640414.2010.495992

DOI: 10.1080/02640414.2010.495992

2009

Modelling the probability distribution of prize winnings in the UK National Lottery: consequences of conscious selection (Journal article)

Baker, R. D., & McHale, I. G. (2009). Modelling the probability distribution of prize winnings in the UK National Lottery: consequences of conscious selection. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series A (Statistics in Society), 172(4), 813-834. doi:10.1111/j.1467-985x.2009.00599.x

DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-985x.2009.00599.x

2008

Say it ain't so": Betting- Related malpractice in sport (Journal article)

Forrest, D., Mchale, I., & Mcauley, K. (2008). Say it ain't so": Betting- Related malpractice in sport. International Journal of Sport Finance, 3(3), 156-166.

2007

Anyone for Tennis (Betting)? (Journal article)

Forrest, D., & Mchale, I. (2007). Anyone for Tennis (Betting)?. The European Journal of Finance, 13(8), 751-768. doi:10.1080/13518470701705736

DOI: 10.1080/13518470701705736

Modelling soccer matches using bivariate discrete distributions with general dependence structure (Journal article)

McHale, I., & Scarf, P. (2007). Modelling soccer matches using bivariate discrete distributions with general dependence structure. Statistica Neerlandica, 61(4), 432-445. doi:10.1111/j.1467-9574.2007.00368.x

DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-9574.2007.00368.x

Statistical analysis of the effectiveness of the FIFA world rankings (Chapter)

McHale, I. G., & Davies Salford, S. (2007). Statistical analysis of the effectiveness of the FIFA world rankings. In Statistical Thinking in Sports (pp. 77-90).

2006

Applications of a General Stable Law Regression Model (Journal article)

McHale, I. G., & Laycock, P. J. (2006). Applications of a General Stable Law Regression Model. Journal of Applied Statistics, 33(10), 1075-1084. doi:10.1080/02664760600746699

DOI: 10.1080/02664760600746699

2005

Ranking football players (Journal article)

McHale, I., & Scarf, P. (2005). Ranking football players. Significance, 2(2), 54-57. doi:10.1111/j.1740-9713.2005.00091.x

DOI: 10.1111/j.1740-9713.2005.00091.x

Longshot bias: insights from the betting market on men's professional tennis (Chapter)

Forrest, D., & McHale, I. (2005). Longshot bias: insights from the betting market on men's professional tennis. In Information Efficiency in Financial and Betting Markets (pp. 215-230). Cambridge University Press. doi:10.1017/cbo9780511493614.009

DOI: 10.1017/cbo9780511493614.009

The importance of recent scores in a forecasting model for professional golf tournaments (Journal article)

McHale, I., & Forrest, D. (2005). The importance of recent scores in a forecasting model for professional golf tournaments. IMA Journal of Management Mathematics, 16(2), 131-140. doi:10.1093/imaman/dpi005

DOI: 10.1093/imaman/dpi005