Meet Dr Emily Nixon

Dr Nixon uses real-world data and mathematical modelling to understand and predict the spread of infectious diseases—particularly those that jump from animals to humans—with the aim of improving outbreak prevention, preparedness and response.

• Name – Dr Emily Nixon
• Position – Lecturer in Mathematics for Healthcare, Department of Mathematical Sciences
• Group Name – MIDDAC Modelling Infectious Disease Dynamics And Control (Nixon Research group)
• Joined University of Liverpool – 2022
• Born – UK
• PhD – University of Bristol, UK

What is your research about?

I use real-world data and mathematical principles to predict and understand how infectious diseases spread and how they can be controlled. This leads to new understanding of diseases and potential for new intervention development or support for decision makers on how best to use existing interventions to control a disease. I’m particularly interested in zoonotic diseases, infectious diseases that spread between animals and humans,  and how zoonoses can be controlled at different stages of disease emergence, from the first stage to where they exist in animals only, to the final stage where the disease is fully adapted to humans. I am also interested in developing ways to include human behaviour within infectious disease models. Historically, these models have primarily focused on the behaviour of the germ, however, human behaviour can also influence how quickly a disease spreads and where it spreads to, and including this aspect will improve model accuracy.

What or who first inspired you to be interested in your research subject?

My undergraduate research project, a computational biology project on disease in plants, was my first experience of combining biology and maths in a meaningful way that I enjoyed. Prior to this, I had enjoyed maths and biology as separate subjects, without understanding how they could be combined and used together. This experience inspired me to complete a PhD in infectious disease modelling at the University of Bristol.

My interest in conducting research in emerging zoonotic diseases arose from a combination of my work on the spread and control of infectious disease within and between farms in my PhD and the primary focus of human infectious disease in much of my postdoctoral research. Combining my experience in both to research zoonotic disease, is not only personally interesting to me, but also very valuable, as most human diseases originate in animals.

What are you most proud of achieving during your research career so far?

As part of the Joint UNIversities Pandemic and Epidemiological Research (JUNIPER) consortium, I contributed to research that supported the UK Government’s Covid-19 policy through the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE). During the Covid-19 pandemic, we often worked under intense time pressure, producing modelling outputs far more rapidly than would be typical in normal circumstances. It was a challenging period, but the collaborative spirit within the JUNIPER team made it possible to deliver work that was both timely and robust. I am grateful to have played a role in helping translate complex data into evidence that informed public health decisions. Contributing to the wider scientific response at such a pivotal time was a privilege, and I was honoured to receive recognition through the SPI-M-O Award for Modelling and Data Support (2022) and the Royal Society Rapid Assistance for Modelling the Pandemic Early Career Investigator Award (2021).

What techniques and equipment do you use to conduct your research?

I often will start to think about the maths behind a model using just a pen and paper (or even a blackboard!), before moving on to developing this into a fully coded computational model. I use a high-powered personal computer to start developing and testing the model code. Once the model code is developed, I access high performance computing resources to run model simulations and produce results. I then analyse the outputs and produce figures, usually using the R programming language.

Which other subjects are important for your research?

I work often with other researchers in computer sciences, biological sciences, public health, medicine and veterinary sciences. I also am starting to work more closely with social scientists, as this is important for understanding more about human behavioural aspects that I am beginning to include within my models.

What is the key to running a successful research group?

I believe that each member of the research group should be valued for their unique contribution and have the opportunity for growth and development. I think that meeting regularly as a group, even informally, is important. People may be working on different projects within the group but can often learn from each other and so this gives the opportunity for social interaction and support which improves overall wellbeing in the workplace. I also think that having a group where everyone feels safe to bring their questions and mistakes allows for better research.

What impact is your research having outside of academia?

Aside from my work during the Covid-19 pandemic, my (two very different) research projects with the most impact outside of academia would include my work on a parasitic disease in sheep and my work on estimating the impact of Lassa fever vaccination.

Within the first project mentioned, I created the first detailed model to track and control sheep scab, a costly disease in sheep worldwide. I found that using preventive treatment prior to sending sheep to market is the most effective method for national control. I identified clusters of farms where synchronising their treatment programs would be beneficial and found that without economic incentives, farmers are unlikely to use preventive treatments. My work helped guide UK Government-funded control projects and has also shaped national policy discussions. My model is freely available for use wherever sheep scab is a problem.

Within the second project, we built the first large-scale model to estimate the true health and economic burden of Lassa fever across West Africa. Our findings show that preventive vaccination could save thousands of lives and billions in economic losses. We also tested how vaccines might respond to a future, more dangerous variant—highlighting just how critical early vaccine rollout would be in preventing a pandemic.

How do you plan to develop your research in the future?

Having recently returned from maternity leave, I have been actively re-establishing my research programme by applying for return-to-research grants. These are supporting my reintegration into the research community, enabling me to attend conferences, training sessions, and workshops—critical for both influencing my field and undertaking personal development.

In terms of research direction, I am focusing on three core areas:

(1) Continued work on avian influenza, particularly its transmission dynamics and risk of zoonotic spillover

(2) Investigating heterogeneity in social contact patterns and its implications for disease spread and control strategies

(3) Expanding my work in a One Health context, where I’m particularly interested in understanding the interactions between human, animal, and environmental health to better anticipate and mitigate infectious disease threats

I will soon be recruiting a PhD student to undertake this project, who will be working on optimising the use of diagnostic tests in the early stages of outbreaks—a key area for improving response effectiveness.

Over the next few years, I plan to build a cohesive programme that combines these strands, with the broader aim of improving outbreak prediction, preparedness, and response through data-driven and behaviourally informed models.

What problem would you like to solve in the next 10 years through your research?

Over the next 10 years, I want to contribute to solving two key global health challenges: how to better predict and prevent disease spillover from animals to humans, and how to respond more effectively when outbreaks occur.

Spillover events are often the origin of the most serious infectious disease threats, but our ability to anticipate them is still limited. I want to develop models that identify the environmental, social, and ecological risk factors behind spillover—so we can shift from reactive responses to proactive prevention.

At the same time, I want to address the gap between model predictions and real-world public health responses by incorporating human behaviour more meaningfully into disease models. Understanding how people make decisions during outbreaks—whether about vaccines, compliance with restrictions, or trust in public health messaging—is critical for designing interventions that work in practice.

Ultimately, my goal is to help build a modelling framework that supports both early detection and smarter, more adaptive outbreak responses—making future pandemics less likely and less severe.

What advice would you give to someone considering a career in research?

I think that it is important to both love the research subject that you want to pursue but also enjoy carrying out the methods that you use to carry out your research. It could be the most interesting research topic ever, but if you don’t enjoy your day-to-day work, then that is not enough to motivate you. Similarly, if you like your day-to-day work, but are not so interested in the big picture overall purpose of why you are doing it, this can also be de-motivating and lead to lack of purpose in the long run.

I love doing maths and coding (my day-to-day) and don’t particularly enjoy carrying out the traditional methods used in biology research (lab and field work); however, I love thinking about the biological aspects, understanding that context and seeing my work have real-life applications (the research subject).

Even if you find an area of research in which you enjoy both the day-to-day and the overall subject, it is still a tough career to navigate, particularly in the postdoctoral stage, where there isn’t always good job security. Therefore, I would recommend seeking support from peers and mentors and always trying to think ahead early about the next step of what you are going to do and what you need to do to get there.

Where can readers learn more about your research?

I have a website and a profile on the university website.