Distribution Splicing for Bayesian Non-Parametric Survival Estimation

Dr. Martin Bladt (University of Copenhagen)

Speaker: Dr. Martin Bladt (University of Copenhagen)

Date: Wednesday, 25th February 2026 at 2pm 

Title: Distribution Splicing for Bayesian Non-Parametric Survival Estimation

Abstract: Spliced models target data where an accurate global description of both the body and tail of the distribution is desirable. A spliced Bayesian non-parametric framework for studying time-to-event data is proposed, where the prior distribution is allowed to depend on an additional random source, and may update with the sample size. Such scenarios are natural, for instance, when considering empirical Bayes techniques or dynamic expert information. In this context, a natural stochastic class for studying the cumulative hazard function are conditionally inhomogeneous independent increment processes with non-decreasing sample paths, also known as mixed time-inhomogeneous subordinators or mixed non-decreasing additive processes. The asymptotic behaviour is studied by showing that Bayesian consistency and Bernstein--von~Mises theorems may be recovered under suitable conditions on the asymptotic negligibility of the prior sequences. The non-asymptotic behaviour of the posterior is also considered. The Bayesian non-parametric nature of the proposed estimators can offer conceptual and numerical alternatives to their parametric counterparts.