2024
Ali, W., Overton, C. E., Wilkinson, R. R., & Sharkey, K. J. (2024). Deterministic epidemic models overestimate the basic reproduction number of observed outbreaks.. Infectious Disease Modelling, 9(3), 680-688. doi:10.1016/j.idm.2024.02.007DOI: 10.1016/j.idm.2024.02.007
Overton, C., Abbey, R., Baird, T., Christie, R., Daniel, O., Day, J., . . . Chen, Y. (2024). Identifying employee, workplace and population characteristics associated with COVID-19 outbreaks in the workplace: a population-based study. Occupational and Environmental Medicine. doi:10.1136/oemed-2023-109032DOI: 10.1136/oemed-2023-109032
2023
Ward, T., Morris, M., Gelman, A., Carpenter, B., Ferguson, W., Overton, C., & Fyles, M. (2023). Bayesian spatial modelling of localised SARS-CoV-2 transmission through mobility networks across England.. PLoS computational biology, 19(11), e1011580. doi:10.1371/journal.pcbi.1011580DOI: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1011580
Overton, C. E., Abbott, S., Christie, R., Cumming, F., Day, J., Jones, O., . . . Ward, T. (2023). Nowcasting the 2022 mpox outbreak in England.. PLoS computational biology, 19(9), e1011463. doi:10.1371/journal.pcbi.1011463DOI: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1011463
Mellor, J., Overton, C. E., Fyles, M., Chawner, L., Baxter, J., Baird, T., & Ward, T. (2023). Understanding the leading indicators of hospital admissions from COVID-19 across successive waves in the UK.. Epidemiology and infection, 151, e172. doi:10.1017/s0950268823001449DOI: 10.1017/s0950268823001449
2022
Pellis, L., Birrell, P. J., Blake, J., Overton, C. E., Scarabel, F., Stage, H. B., . . . De Angelis, D. (2022). Estimation of reproduction numbers in real time: Conceptual and statistical challenges. JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL STATISTICAL SOCIETY SERIES A-STATISTICS IN SOCIETY, 185, S112-S130. doi:10.1111/rssa.12955DOI: 10.1111/rssa.12955
Pellis, L., Birrell, P. J. J., Blake, J., Hall, I., House, T. A. A., Overton, C. E. E., . . . De Angelis, D. (2022). Authors' reply to the discussion of 'Estimation of reproduction numbers in real time: conceptual and statistical challenges' by Pellis et al. in Session 3 of the Royal Statistical Society's Special Topic Meeting on COVID-19 transmission: 11 June 2021. JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL STATISTICAL SOCIETY SERIES A-STATISTICS IN SOCIETY, 185, S153-S157. doi:10.1111/rssa.12984DOI: 10.1111/rssa.12984
Ward, T., Christie, R., Paton, R. S., Cumming, F., & Overton, C. E. (2022). Transmission dynamics of monkeypox in the United Kingdom: contact tracing study.. BMJ (Clinical research ed.), 379, e073153. doi:10.1136/bmj-2022-073153DOI: 10.1136/bmj-2022-073153
Overton, C. E., Webb, L., Datta, U., Fursman, M., Hardstaff, J., Hiironen, I., . . . Hall, I. (2022). Novel methods for estimating the instantaneous and overall COVID-19 case fatality risk among care home residents in England. PLOS COMPUTATIONAL BIOLOGY, 18(10). doi:10.1371/journal.pcbi.1010554DOI: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1010554
Overton, C. E., Pellis, L., Stage, H. B., Scarabel, F., Burton, J., Fraser, C., . . . Lythgoe, K. A. (2022). EpiBeds: Data informed modelling of the COVID-19 hospital burden in England. PLOS COMPUTATIONAL BIOLOGY, 18(9). doi:10.1371/journal.pcbi.1010406DOI: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1010406
Paton, R. S., Overton, C. E., & Ward, T. (2022). The rapid replacement of the SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant by Omicron (B.1.1.529) in England. SCIENCE TRANSLATIONAL MEDICINE, 14(652). doi:10.1126/scitranslmed.abo5395DOI: 10.1126/scitranslmed.abo5395
Pattni, K., Hungerford, D., Adams, S., Buchan, I., Cheyne, C. P., García-Fiñana, M., . . . Sharkey, K. J. (n.d.). Effectiveness of the BNT162b2 (Pfizer-BioNTech) and the ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 (Oxford-AstraZeneca) vaccines for reducing susceptibility to infection with the Delta variant (B.1.617.2) of SARS-CoV-2. BMC Infectious Diseases, 22(1). doi:10.1186/s12879-022-07239-zDOI: 10.1186/s12879-022-07239-z
Kretzschmar, M. E., Ashby, B., Fearon, E., Overton, C. E., Panovska-Griffiths, J., Pellis, L., . . . Villela, D. (2022). Challenges for modelling interventions for future pandemics. Epidemics, 38, 100546. doi:10.1016/j.epidem.2022.100546DOI: 10.1016/j.epidem.2022.100546
Swallow, B., Birrell, P., Blake, J., Burgman, M., Challenor, P., Coffeng, L. E., . . . Vernon, I. (2022). Challenges in estimation, uncertainty quantification and elicitation for pandemic modelling. Epidemics, 38, 100547. doi:10.1016/j.epidem.2022.100547DOI: 10.1016/j.epidem.2022.100547
2021
Overton, C. E., Wilkinson, R. R., Loyinmi, A., Miller, J. C., & Sharkey, K. J. (2022). Approximating Quasi-Stationary Behaviour in Network-Based SIS Dynamics. BULLETIN OF MATHEMATICAL BIOLOGY, 84(1). doi:10.1007/s11538-021-00964-7DOI: 10.1007/s11538-021-00964-7
Vekaria, B., Overton, C., Wisniowski, A., Ahmad, S., Aparicio-Castro, A., Curran-Sebastian, J., . . . Elliot, M. J. (2021). Hospital length of stay for COVID-19 patients: Data-driven methods for forward planning. BMC INFECTIOUS DISEASES, 21(1). doi:10.1186/s12879-021-06371-6DOI: 10.1186/s12879-021-06371-6
Fyles, M., Fearon, E., Overton, C., Wingfield, T., Medley, G. F., Hall, I., . . . House, T. (2021). Using a household-structured branching process to analyse contact tracing in the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. PHILOSOPHICAL TRANSACTIONS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY B-BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES, 376(1829). doi:10.1098/rstb.2020.0267DOI: 10.1098/rstb.2020.0267
Pattni, K., Overton, C. E., & Sharkey, K. J. (2021). Evolutionary graph theory derived from eco-evolutionary dynamics. JOURNAL OF THEORETICAL BIOLOGY, 519. doi:10.1016/j.jtbi.2021.110648DOI: 10.1016/j.jtbi.2021.110648
Pellis, L., Scarabel, F., Stage, H. B., Overton, C. E., Chappell, L. H. K., Fearon, E., . . . Hall, I. (2021). Challenges in control of COVID-19: short doubling time and long delay to effect of interventions. PHILOSOPHICAL TRANSACTIONS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY B-BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES, 376(1829). doi:10.1098/rstb.2020.0264DOI: 10.1098/rstb.2020.0264
Overton, C. E., & Sharkey, K. J. (2021). Evolutionary bet-hedging in structured populations. JOURNAL OF MATHEMATICAL BIOLOGY, 82(5). doi:10.1007/s00285-021-01597-zDOI: 10.1007/s00285-021-01597-z
2020
Overton, C. (2020, July 28). Stochastic evolutionary and epidemic processes onnetworks.
Stochastic evolutionary and epidemic processes on
networks (Thesis / Dissertation)
Overton, C. (2020, July 28). Stochastic evolutionary and epidemic processes onnetworks.
Overton, C. E., Stage, H. B., Ahmad, S., Curran-Sebastian, J., Dark, P., Das, R., . . . Webb, L. (2020). Using statistics and mathematical modelling to understand infectious disease outbreaks: COVID-19 as an example. INFECTIOUS DISEASE MODELLING, 5, 409-441. doi:10.1016/j.idm.2020.06.008DOI: 10.1016/j.idm.2020.06.008
2019
Overton, C. E., Broom, M., Hadjichrysanthou, C., & Sharkey, K. J. (2019). Methods for approximating stochastic evolutionary dynamics on graphs. JOURNAL OF THEORETICAL BIOLOGY, 468, 45-59. doi:10.1016/j.jtbi.2019.02.009DOI: 10.1016/j.jtbi.2019.02.009
