Growing Aerosol Cloud Aviation Interactions in the 21st Century

• Supervisors: Prof. Martin Gallagher (UMAN)
  Dr. Dave Topping (NCAS)
  Dr. J. Dorsey (NCAS)
  
  
• External Supervisors: Dr. E. Ostrom (UK Met Office), Dr. G. Nott (FAAM)
  
  
• Contact:

  Prof. Martin Gallagher, martin.gallagher@manchester.ac.uk

• CASE Partner: Yes - UK Met Office/NCAS_FAAM

Application deadline: 3 February 2017

The global airline industry has expanded rapidly over recent decades and this expansion will likely continue. Measured by revenue, the industry has doubled over the past decade, from US$369 billion in 2004 to $746 billion in 2014, International Air Transport Association (IATA) . Forecast of more than 9000 billion passenger kilometres and 510,000 billion freight km will be flown by 2025. Approximately 25 percent of the passenger growth has been driven by low-cost carriers in rapidly growing emerging markets. Growth has also continued in developed markets. This growth has raised concerns that CO2 emissions from this transport sector may increase by more than 110 percent by 2025, with estimates varying up to 876 to 1013 Mt annually (Macintosh & Wallace, 2009, ICAO 2007). It is thought that with current technology decreases or even stabilization in emission levels needed to mitigate aviation climate impact contributions are unlikely and emissions will increase significantly with projections to 2025 suggesting a 144 percent increase in CO2 emissions globally. Increasing pressure  on international aviation emissions is likely to be necessary if global average surface temperature increases are to be maintained below a recommended 2 °C. However under current policy settings, emissions are likely to increase significantly unless there is a major global economic downturn or other shock to the aviation market. Whilst the CO2 radiative impacts on climate are well established the impacts of aviation on the environment can be complex, resulting from the interplay of many different variables, from aircraft emitted aerosol-cloud interactions, technology used, flight operations, operating regions and conditions both local and long-haul, government policies and to market conditions.

Mitigation of aviation on the environment generally is being considered through study of most of these in collaboration with industry.  In this project we will use data obtained from miniature instrumentation installed on commercial aircraft to examine both the local particulate environment to which aircraft and engine plants are exposed to over their flight history in different regions of the world. Exposure patterns and levels are important factors for aviation industry to consider for optimum efficiency and maintenance of aircraft power plants. This will include analysis of the frequency on aircraft interaction with dust clouds and water and ice clouds for which a global database is available (Figure 1). Current commercial aviation sensor technology however does not allow discrimination of these different particulates, water, ice and dust so in this project the student will also work with a new miniature sensor to test and validate the discrimination capability. This instrument is being installed on the NERC FAAM research aircraft and the student will work closely with FAAM staff to operate and collect data for comparison with state of the art cloud microphysical sensors in a variety of environments from warm water clouds to storm outflow ice clouds and high level cirrus ice clouds as well as dust in arid regions. Algorithms to validate and test the performance of the enhanced miniature detector will be used including decision tree networks, neural networks and other supervised machine learning algorithms. The object of this will be two fold 1) To validate how well the miniature version of the sensor can discriminate between different particulate types, 2) To improve current software algorithms to inform delivery of real-time information to aerospace concerns and to pilot in cockpit decision making procedures (e.g. actionable procedures when high icing conditions might be encountered requiring diversion); and finally 3) the student will work with the UK Met Office using a synthesis of this data to examine its use for potential prediction improvement of icing conditions for aviation in different regions of the globe. This will involve use of an existing global database from commercial aircraft as well as data from the improved sensor (FAAM and other aircraft) to assess potential improvements the new sensor could deliver. The student will therefore have opportunity to work with staff at FAAM, University of Manchester and the UK Met Office to examine other potential applications of the collected data sets. As part of this project the student will also work with staff at instrument manufacturer Droplet Measurement Technology (Boulder California, USA) There will also be opportunity to participate in a wide range of UK met Office and University aircraft campaigns both in the UK and overseas.

Aviation and global climate change in the 21st century. (2009) David S. Lee, , , David W. Fahey, Piers M. Forster, Peter J. Newton, Ron C.N. Wit, Ling L. Lim, Bethan Owen, Robert Sausen. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosenv.2009.04.024. 

International aviation emissions to 2025: Can emissions be stabilised without restricting demand?(2009) Andrew Macintosh^, , Lailey Wallace, http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2008.08.029. 

International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO), (2007).Outlook for Air Transport to the Year 2025. ICAO, Canada (2007)

Apply Now