Liverpool University Climate and Infectious Diseases of Animals (LUCINDA)


  1. Hernandez-Colina, A, González-Olvera M, Eckley L, Lopez J, Baylis M (2021). Avian Malaria Affecting Penguins in Zoological Gardens, Aquariums and Wildlife Parks in the United Kingdom. The Vet Record in press
  2. Metelmann S, Liu X, Lu L, Caminade C, Liu K, Cao L, Medlock JM, Baylis M, Morse AP, Liu Q (2021). Assessing the suitability for Aedes albopictus and dengue transmission risk in China with a delay differential equation model. PloS NTD1371/journal.pntd.0009153
  3. Wardeh M, Baylis M, Blagrove MSC (2021). Predicting mammalian hosts in which novel coronaviruses can be generated bioRxiv1101/2020.06.15.151845. Nature Communications 12, 780. 10.1038/s41467-021-21034-5
  4. Jack Pilgrim, Stefanos Siozios, Matthew Baylis, Gert Venter, Claire Garros, Gregory D. D. Hurst (2021). Cardinium symbiosis as a potential confounder of mtDNA based phylogeographic inference in Culicoides imicola (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae), a vector of veterinary viruses bioRxiv 10.1101/2020.09.20.305342v1; & Parasites & Vectors 1186/s13071-020-04568-3


  1. Bedilu Alamirie Ejigu, Manalebis Debalike Asfaw, Lisa Cavaleri, Tilahun Abebaw, Mark Nanyingi, Matthew Baylis (2020). Assessing the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions on the dynamics of COVID-19: A mathematical modelling study in the case of Ethiopia. medRxiv1101/2020.11.16.20231746
  2. Jack Pilgrim, Stefanos Siozios, Matthew Baylis, Gert Venter, Claire Garros, Gregory D. D. Hurst (2021). Identifying candidate Culicoides (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) for the study of interactions with Candidatus Cardinium hertigii (Bacteroidetes). bioRxiv 10.1101/2020.09.21.306753; Med Vet Entomol in press
  3. Spooner T, Jones AE, Fearnley J, Savani R, Turner J, Baylis M (2020). Bayesian optimisation of restriction zones for bluetongue control. Scientific Reports 10, 15139. 10.1038/s41598-020-71856-4
  4. Pilgrim J, Thongprem P, Davison HR, Siozios S, Baylis M, Zakharov EV, Ratnasingham S, deWaard JR, Mascadam CR, Smith MA, Hurst GDD (2021). Torix Rickettsia are widespread in arthropods and reflect a neglected symbiosis. Authorea22541/au.159534851.19125003. Gigascience 10.1093/gigascience/giab021
  5. Metelmann S, Pattni K, Brierley L, Cavalerie L, Caminade C, Blagrove MSC, Turner J, Sharkey KJ, Baylis M (2020 preprint; 2021). Impact of climatic, demographic and disease control factors on the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 in large cities worldwide. medRxiv1101/2020.07.17.20155226. One Health,
  6. Wardeh M, Blagrove MSC, Sharkey KJ, Baylis M (2020 preprint). Divide and conquer - machine learning integrates host, virus and network traits to predict unobserved virus-mammal associations. bioRxiv1101/2020.06.13.150003
  7. Pilgrim J, Siozios S, M Baylis, GDD Hurst (2020. The Tissue Tropisms and Transstadial Transmission of a Rickettsia Endosymbiont in the Highland Midge, Culicoides impunctatus(Diptera: Ceratopogonidae). Applied and Environmental Microbiology; and bioRxiv. 10.1101/2020.06.23.166496
  8. Chapman GE, Sherlock K, Hesson JC, Blagrove MSC, Lycett GJ, Archer D, Solomon T, Baylis M (2020). Laboratory transmission potential of British mosquitoes for equine arboviruses. Parasites & Vectors 1186/s13071-020-04285-x
  9. Blagrove MSC, Caminade C, Diggle PJ, Patterson EI, Sherlock K, Chapman GE, Hesson J, Metelmann S, McCall PJ, Lycett G, Medlock J, Hughes GL, della Torre A, Baylis M (2020). Potential for Zika virus transmission by mosquitoes in temperate climates. Proc Roy Soc Lond B. 1098/rspb.2020.0119
  10. Southwell RM, Sherlock K & Baylis M. (2020). Cross-sectional study of British wild deer for evidence of Schmallenberg virus infection. Veterinary Record1136/vr.105869
  11. Wardeh M, Sharkey K and Baylis M. (2020) Integration of shared-pathogen networks and machine learning reveal key aspects of zoonoses and predict mammalian reservoirs. Proc Roy Soc Lond B. 287, 20192882. DOI: 10.1098/rspb.2019.2882.
  12. Ganapathy, K., Ball, C., Baylis, M., Tirumurugaan, K. G., Suwetha, K. R., Gowthaman, V., ... & Chhabra, R. (2020). QX-like infectious bronchitis virus reported in India. Veterinary Record, 186(2), 69-70. 1136/vr.m136


  1. Holding M, Dowall SD, Medlock JM, Carter DP, McGinley L, Curran-French M, Pullan ST, Chamberlain J, Hansford KM, Baylis M, Vipond R, Hewson R. Detection of new endemic focus of tick-borne encephalitis virus (TBEV), Hampshire/Dorset border, England, September (2019). Eurosurveillance 24:pii=1900658. DOI:10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2019.24.47.1900658
  2. Holding M, Dowall SD, Medlock JM, Carter DP, Pullan ST, Lewis J, Vipond R, Rocchi MS, Baylis M, Hewson R (2019) Detection of tick-borne encephalitis virus in the Emerging Infectious Diseases 23, 1028-30. DOI: 10.3201/eid2601.191085
  3. Kreppel K, Caminade C, Govella N, Morse A, Ferguson H, Baylis M (2019). Impact of ENSO 2016-17 on regional climate and malaria vector dynamics in Tanzania. Environmental Research Letters 14, e0750009;
  4. Cavicchioli R, Ripple WJ, Timmis KN, Azam F, Bakken LR, Baylis M, Behrenfeld MJ, Boetius A, Boyd PW, Classen AT, Crowther TW, Danovaro R, Foreman CM, Huisman J, Hutchins DA, Jansson JK, Karl DM, Koskella B, Welch DBM, Martiny JBH, Moran MA, Orphan VJ, Reay DS, Remais JV, Rich VI, Singh BK, Stein LY, Stewart FJ, Sullivan MB, van Oppen MJH, Weaver SC, Webb EA, Webster NS (2019). Scientists’ Warning to Humanity: microorganisms and climate change. Nature Reviews Microbiology 17, 569-586. 1038/s41579-019-0222-5
  5. Metelmann S, Caminade C, Jones AE, Medlock JM, Baylis M and AP Morse (2019). The UK's suitability for Aedes albopictus in current and future climates. Journal of Royal Society Interface 16, 20180761,
  6. Jones AE, Turner J, Caminade C, Heath A, Wardeh M, Kluiters G, Diggle P, Morse A, Baylis M (2019). Bluetongue risk under future climates. Nature Climate Change 9, 153-157. 10.1038/s41558-018-0376-6
  7. Turner J, Jones AE, Heath A, Wardeh M, Caminade C, Kluiters G, Bowers RG, Morse A, Baylis M. (2019) The effect of temperature, farm density and foot-and-mouth disease restrictions on the 2007 UK bluetongue outbreak. Scientific Reports1038/s41598-018-35941-z



  1. Wells K, Morand S, Wardeh M, Baylis M (2018). Distinct spread of DNA and RNA viruses among mammals amid prominent 2 role of domestic species. Global Ecology & Biogeography 2019; 00; 1-12. 10.1111/geb.13045; and BioRxiv. 10.1101/421511
  1. Siozios S, J Pilgrim, AC Darby, M Baylis, GDD Hurst (2018). The draft genome of strain cCpun from biting midges establishes Cardinium as a paraphyletic group, and reveals a novel gene family expansion in a symbiont. PeerJ. 7717/peerj.6448
  2. Stokes JE, RE Tarlinton, F Lovatt, M Baylis, A Carson, JS Duncan (2018). Survey to determine the farm level impact of Schmallenberg virus during the 2016-2017 United Kingdom lambing season. Vet Record. vetrec-2018-104866
  3. Hope A, Gubbins S, Sanders C, Barber J, Stubbins F, Baylis M, Carpenter S (2018). Sheep breed and shearing influences attraction and blood-feeding behaviour of Culicoides (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) on a UK farm. Parasites & Vectors 11, 473.
  4. Bell-Sakyi L, Darby A, Baylis M, Makepeace BL (2018). The Tick Cell Biobank: a global resource for in vitro research on ticks, other arthropods and the pathogens they transmit. Ticks and tick-borne diseases.
  5. McCann CM, Clough HE, Baylis M, Williams DJL (2018). Development and validation of a protocol to identify and recruit participants into a large-scale study on liver fluke in cattle. BMC Veterinary Research.
  6. Chapman G, Baylis M, Archer DA & Daly J. (2018). The challenges posed by equine arboviruses.  Equine Veterinary Journal. doi: 10.1111/evj.12829
  7. Chapman G, Baylis M & Archer DA (2018). Survey of UK horse owners’ knowledge of equine arboviruses and disease vectors. Veterinary Record. doi: 10.1136/vr.104521



  1. John Graham-Brown, Catherine Hartley, Helen Clough, Aras Kadioglu, Matthew Baylis, and Diana Williams (2017). Dairy heifers naturally exposed to Fasciola hepatica develop a type-2 immune response and concomitant suppression of leukocyte proliferation. Infection and Immunity
  2. Pilgrim J, Ander M, Garros C, Baylis M, Hurst GDD, Siozios S (2017). Torix group Rickettsia are widespread in Culicoides biting midges (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae), reach high frequency and carry unique genomic features. Environmental Microbiology. 10.1111/1462-2920.13887
  3. McIntyre KM, Setzkorn C, Hepworth PJ, Morand S, Morse AP, Baylis M (2017). Systematic Assessment of the Climate Sensitivity of Important Human and Domestic Animals Pathogens in Europe". Scientific Reports in press.
  4. Marcus S C Blagrove, Elisabeth Waldmann, Elizabeth R Sutton, Maya Wardeh, Cyril Caminade, Matthew Baylis (2017). Co-occurrence of viruses and mosquitoes at the vectors' optimal climate range: an underestimated risk to temperate regions? PloS Neglected Tropical Diseases.  DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0005604.
  5. Baylis M (2017). Potential impact of climate change on emerging vector-borne and other infections in the UK. Environmental Health (in press)
  6. Baylis M, Caminade C, Turner J & Jones A.E. (2017). The role of climate change in the developing threat: the case of bluetongue in Europe. OIE Science and Technical Review (in press)
  7. Christopher Ball, Faez Awad, Sally Hutton, Anne Forrester, Matthew Baylis & Kannan Ganapathy (2017). Infectious bronchitis vaccine virus detection and part-S1 genetic variation following single or dual inoculation in broiler chicks. Avian Pathology. DOI: 10.1080/03079457.2016.1268675
  8. Caminade C, Turner J, Metelmann S, Hesson JC, Blagrove MSC, Solomon T, Morse AP & Baylis M (2017). Global risk model for vector-borne transmission of Zika virus reveals the role of El Niño 2015. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1614303114
  9. Kamtchum-Tatuenea J, Makepeace B, Benjamin L, Baylis M, Solomon T (2017). The potential role of Wolbachia in controlling the transmission of emerging human arboviral infections. Current Opinion in Infectious Disease 30, 108-116. 10.1097/QCO.0000000000000342


  1. Giorgi E, Kreppel K, Diggle PJ, Caminade C, Rajerison M, Ratsitorahina M, Baylis M (2016). Modelling of spatio-temporal variation in plague incidence in Madagascar from 1980 to 2007. Spatial and Spatio-temporal Epidemiology. 10.1016/j.sste.2016.10.001
  2. Stokes JE, Baylis M*, Duncan JS* (2016). A freedom from disease study: Schmallenberg virus in the south of England in 2015. Veterinary Record (* share last authorship). 10.1136/vr.103903
  3. Chapman G, Archer DA, S. Torr, T. Solomon, Baylis M. (2016). Potential vectors of equine arboviruses in the UK. Veterinary Record. 10.1136/vr.103825.
  4. Blagrove M, Sherlock K, Chapman G, Impoinvil D, McCall P, Medlock J, Lycett G, Solomon T, Baylis M (2016). Evaluation of the vector competence of a native UK mosquito Ochlerotatus detritus (Aedes detritus) for dengue, chikungunya and West Nile viruses. Parasites and Vectors 9: 452. 10.1186/s13071-016-1739-3
  5. Richardson, J., C. Lockhart, S. Pongolini, W. B. Karesh, M. Baylis, T. Goldberg, J. Slingenbergh, P. Gale, T. Venturini, M. Catchpole, K. de Balogh, M. Pautasso, A. Broglia, F. Berthe, J. Schans and G. Poppy (2016). Drivers for emerging issues in animal and plant health. EFSA Journal 14.  DOI: 10.2903/j.efsa.2016.s0512
  6. Robin M, Page P, Archer D, Baylis M (2016). African Horse Sickness: the potential for an outbreak in disease-free regions and current disease control and elimination techniques. Equine Veterinary Journal. Published 1/6/2016.  DOI: 10.1111/evj.12600
  7. Kluiters G, Pagès N, Carpenter, Gardès L, Guis H, Baylis M, Garros  (2016). Morphometric discrimination of two sympatric sibling species in the Palaearctic region, Culicoides obsoletus Meigen and C. scoticus Downes and Kettle (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae), vectors of bluetongue and Schmallenberg viruses. Parasites and Vectors. 4 May 2016. DOI: 10.1186/s13071-016-1520-7
  8. Mansfield KL, Johnson N, Banyard AC, Núñez A, Baylis M, Solomon T, Fooks AR (2016). Innate and adaptive immune responses to tick-borne flavivirus infection in sheep. Veterinary Microbiology 185, 20-28. Publ 22/1/2016.  doi:10.1016/j.vetmic.2016.01.015
  9. Turner J, Howell A, McCann C, Caminade C, Bowers RG, Williams DJL, Baylis M (2016). A model to assess the efficacy of vaccines for control of liver fluke infection. Scientific Reports 6, 23345, doi:10.1038/srep23345
  10. Baylis M, Barker CM, Caminade C, Joshi BR, Pant GR, Rayamajhi A, Reisen WK, Impoinvil DE (2016) Emergence or improved detection of Japanese encephalitis virus in the Himalayan highlands? Transactions of the Royal Society of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine. 7/3/2016. doi:10.1093/trstmh/trw012
  11. Solomon T, Baylis M, Brown D (2016). Zika virus and neurological disease – approaches to the unknown. Lancet Infectious Diseases. 26/2/2016.
  12. Kreppel KS, Telfer S, Rajerison M, Morse AP, Baylis M (2016). Effect of temperature and relative humidity on the development times and survival of Synopsyllus fonquerniei and Xenopsylla cheopis, the flea vectors of plague in Madagascar. Parasites & Vectors. 11/2/2016, doi: 10.1186/s13071-016-1366-z
  13. Awad F, Chhabra R, Forrester A, Chantrey J, Baylis M, Lemiere S, Hussein H (2016). Experimental infection of IS/885/00-like infectious bronchitis virus in specific pathogen free and commercial broiler chicks. Research in Veterinary Science. 6/1/2016. doi:10.1016/j.rvsc.2016.01.001
  14. Awad F, Hutton S, Forrester A, Baylis M, Ganapathy K (2016). Heterologous live IBV vaccination in day-old commercial broiler chicks: clinical signs, ciliary health, immune responses and protection against variant IBVs. Avian Pathology. doi: 10.1080/03079457.2015.1137866


  1. Rose, H; Caminade, C, Bolajoko, M; Phelan, P; van Dijk, J; Baylis, M; Williams, D; Morgan, E. (2015). Climate-driven changes to the spatio-temporal distribution of the parasitic nematode, Haemonchus contortus, in sheep in Europe. Global Change Biology. 20/10/2015, :10. Doi: 10.1111/gcb.13132
  2. Al Shekaili T, Clough H, Ganapathy K & Baylis M (2015) Sero-surveillance and Risk factors for Avian Influenza and Newcastle Disease virus in backyard poultry in Oman. Preventive Veterinary Medicine, online 25/9/2015. Doi: 10.1016/j.prevetmed.2015.09.011
  3. Wardeh M, Risley C, McIntyre KM, Setzkorn C, Baylis M (2015). Database of host-pathogen and related species interactions, and their global distribution. Scientific Data 2, 150049(2015). doi: 10.1038/sdata.2015.49
  4. Awad F, Forrester A, Baylis M, Lemiere S & Ganapathy K(2015). Protection conferred by live infectious bronchitis vaccine viruses against variant Middle East IS/885/00-like and IS/1494/06-like isolates in commercial broiler chicks. Veterinary Record Open, 2, e000111.doi:10.1136/vetreco-2014-000111
  5. Howell A, Baylis M, Smith R, Pinchbeck G, Williams D (2015). Epidemiology and impact of F. hepatica in high-yielding dairy herds. Preventive Veterinary Medicine, doi:10.1016/j.prevetmed.2015.05.013
  6. Robin M, Archer D, McGowan C, Garros C, Gardès L, Baylis M (2015). The repellent effect of topical deltamethrin on blood-feeding by Culicoides on horses. The Veterinary Record, 176, 574. doi:10.1136/vr.102800.
  7. Hope A, Gubbins S, Sanders C, Denison E, Barber J, Stubbins F, Baylis M, Carpenter S (2015). A comparison of commercial light-emitting diode baited suction traps for surveillance of Culicoides in northern Europe. Parasites and Vectors 8: 239. doi: 10.1186/s13071-015-0846-x
  8. 8.          Caminade C, van Dijk J, Baylis M, Williams D (2015).Modelling recent and future climatic suitability for fasciolosis in Europe. Journal of Geospatial Health. 9, 301-308. doi:
  9. Kluiters G, Swales H, Baylis M (2015). Local dispersal of Palaearctic Culicoides biting midges estimated by mark-release-recapture. Parasites and Vectors 8: 86. doi:10.1186/s13071-015-0658-z
  10. Kluiters G, Hunter K, Baylis M (2015). Validation of fluorescent dust marking of Culicoides biting midges and the design of a self-marking technique. Parasites and Vectors 8: 54. doi:10.1186/s13071-015-0657-0
  11. Al Shekaili T, Baylis M & Ganapathy K (2015). Molecular detection of infectious bronchitis and avian metapneumoviruses in Oman backyard poultry Research in Veterinary Science. doi:10.1016/j.rvsc.2014.12.018



  • Awad F, Forrester A, Baylis M, Lemiere S, Jones R & Ganapathy K(2014). Immune responses and interactions following simultaneous application of live Newcastle disease, infectious bronchitis and avian metapneumovirus vaccines in specific-pathogen-free chicks. Reearch in Veterinary Science. In press.
  • Read, JM, Diggle PJ, Chirombo J, Solomon T, Baylis M (2014). Effectiveness of screening for Ebola virus at airports. The Lancet 384, 1-2.
  • Kreppel KS, Caminade C, Telfer S, Rajerison M, Rahalison L, Morse A, Baylis M (2014). A non-stationary relationship between global climate phenomena and human plague incidence in Madagascar. PloS Neglected Tropical Diseases. DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0003155
  • Mackenzie-Impoinvil L, Impoinvil DE, Galbraith SE, Dillon RJ, Ranson H, Johnson N, Fooks AR, Solomon T & Baylis M (2014). Evaluation of a temperate climate mosquito, Ochlerotatus (Aedes) detritus, as a potential vector for Japanese encephalitis virus. Medical and Veterinary Entomology. DOI: 10.1111/mve.12083
  • Gubbins S, Turner J, Baylis M, van de Stede Y, van Schaik G, Abrahantes JC, Wilson AJ (2014). Inferences about the transmission of Schmallenberg virus within and between farms Preventive Veterinary Medicine 116, 380-90. DOI:
  • Gubbins S, Richardson J, Baylis M, Wilson AJ, Abrahantes JC (2014). Modelling the continental-scale spread of Schmallenberg virus in Europe: approaches and Challenges. Preventive Veterinary Medicine 116, 404-11. DOI:
  • Ruth Cox, K. Marie McIntyre, Javier Sanchez, Christian Setzkorn, Matthew Baylis, Crawford W. Revie(2014). Comparison of the h-index scores among pathogens identified as emerging hazards in North America. Transboundary and Emerging Infections. DOI:10.1111/tbed.12221
  • Lewis SE, Rice A, Hurst GDD and Baylis M (2014). First detection of endosymbotic bacteria in Culicoides pulicaris and Culicoides punctatus, important Palearctic vectors of bluetongue virus. Medical and Veterinary Entomology. DOI: 10.1111/mve.12055
  • McIntyre KM, Setzkorn C, Hepworth PJ, Morand S, Morse A & Baylis M (2014). A quantitative prioritisation of human and domestic animal pathogens in Europe. Plos ONE 9(8), e103529. DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0103529
  • Awad F, Chhabra R, Baylis M & Ganapathy K(2014). An overview of infectious bronchitis virus in chickens. World’s Poultry Science Journal. 70, 375-384.
  • Awad F, Baylis M & Ganapathy K(2014). Detection of variant infectious bronchitis viruses in broiler flocks in Libya. Int. Journal of Veterinary Science and Medicine.
  • Awad F, Baylis M, Jones RC & Ganapathy K(2014). Evaluation of Flinders Technology Associates cards for storage and molecular detection of avian metapneumoviruses. Avian Pathology. DOI: 10.1080/03079457.2014.885114
  • Morand S, McIntyre KM, Baylis M (2014). Domesticated animals and human infectious diseases of zoonotic origins: domestication time matters. Infection, Genetics and Evolution 24, 76-81.
  • Robin M, Baylis M, Archer D, Garros C (2014). The threat of midge-borne equine disease: Investigation of Culicoides species on UK equine premises. The Veterinary Record 174(12), . DOI: 10.1136/vr.102151. Published online Feb 6, 2014.


  • Baylis M (2013). Research gaps in understanding how climate change will affect arboviral diseases. Animal Health Research Reviews, 14, 143-146. DOI:10.1017/S1466252313000145.
  • Impoinvil DE, Ooi MH, Diggle PJ, Caminade C, Cardosa MJ, Morse AP, Baylis M*, Solomon T* (2013). The effect of vaccination coverage and climate on Japanese encephalitis in Sarawak, Malaysia. PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases (* last authorship shared equally) 7(8): e2334. DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0002334.
  • McIntyre KM, Setzkorn C, Wardeh M, Hepworth PJ, Radford AD, Baylis M (2013). Using open-access taxonomic and spatial information to create a comprehensive database for the study of mammalian and avian livestock and pet infections. Preventive Veterinary Medicine, 116, 325-35.
  • Charron, MVP, Kluiters G, Langlais M, Seegers H, Baylis M and Ezanno P (2013). Seasonal and spatial heterogeneities in host and vector abundances impact the spatiotemporal spread of bluetongue. Veterinary Research 44:44. DOI:10.1186/1297-9716-44-44
  • Morand S, Owers KA, Waret-Szkuta A, McIntyre KM, Baylis M (2013). Climate variability and outbreaks of infectious diseases in Europe. Scientific Reports 3, 1774; DOI:10.1038/srep01774.
  • Turner J, Bowers R & Baylis M (2013). Two-host, two-vector basic reproduction ratio (R0) for bluetongue. Plos ONE 8, e53128. DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0053128


  • Kluiters G, Sugden D, Guis H, McIntyre KM, Labuschagne K, Jose Vilar M & Baylis M. (2012). Modelling the spatial distribution of Culicoides biting midges at the local scale. Journal of Applied Ecology. Doi: 10.1111/1365-2664.12030
  • Claridge J, Diggle P, McCann CM, Mulcahy G, Flynn R, McNair J, Strain S, Welsh M, Baylis M* and Williams DJL* (2012). Fasciola hepatica is associated with failure to detect bovine tuberculosis in dairy cattle. Nature Communications DOI 10.1038/ncomms1840. (* last authorship shared equally) (html)
  • Cyril Caminade, Jolyon M Medlock, Els Ducheyne, K Marie McIntyre, Steve Leach, Matthew Baylis and Andrew P Morse.  (2012).  Suitability of European climate for the Asian tiger mosquito Aedes albopictus: recent trends and future scenarios. Journal of The Royal Society Interface, doi: 10.1098/rsif.2012.0138 (html)
  • Turner J, Bowers RG and Baylis M (2012). Modelling bluetongue virus transmission between farms using animal and vector movements. Scientific Reports 2, 319; DOI:10.1038/srep00319 (html)
  • Baylis M & Morse AP (2012). Disease, human and animal health, and environmental change. Chapter #42 in The SAGE Handbook of Environmental Change, ed John A Matthews. Sage, 1056 pp. Volume 2, 387-405.
  • Baylis M & Risley C. (2012). Climate Change Effects on Infectious Diseases. Encyclopedia of Sustainability Science and Technology. Springer.


  • Daniel E. Impoinvil , Tom Solomon , W William Schluter, Ajit Rayamajhi, Ram Padarath Bichha, Geeta Shakya, Cyril Caminade, Matthew Baylis (2011). The spatial heterogeneity between Japanese Encephalitis incidence distribution and environmental variables in Nepal. PLoS ONE 6(7), e22192 (html)
  • Ben Ari T, Neerinckx S, Gage KL, Kreppel K, Laudisoit A, et al. (2011). Plague and Climate: Scales Matter. PLoS Pathog 7(9): e1002160.doi:10.1371/journal.ppat.1002160 (html))
  • Helene Guis, Cyril Caminade, Carlos Calvete, Andrew P. Morse, Annelise Tran, and Matthew Baylis. Modelling the effects of past and future climate on the risk of bluetongue emergence in Europe. J R Soc Interface (2011) : rsif.2011.0255v1-rsif20110255 (html)
  • McIntyre KM, Hawkes I, Waret-Szkuta A, Morand S, Baylis M (2011) The H-Index as a Quantitative Indicator of the Relative Impact of Human Diseases. PLoS ONE 6(5): e19558. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0019558(html)
  • McIntyre KM, del Rio Vilas VJ and Gubbins S (2011) Demographic characteristics of holdings identified by active and passive surveillance schemes for scrapie in Great Britain, 2002-2005. The Veterinary Journal (2011) doi:10.1016/j.tvjl.2009.12.005 (html)
  • M. J. Vilar, H. Guis, J. Krzywinski, S. Sanderson, M. Baylis (2011) Culicoides vectors of bluetongue in Chester Zoo.The Veterinary Record (2011) 168, 242 doi: 10.1136/vr.c6684 (html)


  • K. M. McIntyre, C. Setzkorn, M. Baylis, et al (2010) Impact of climate change on human and animal Health.The Veterinary Record 2010 167: 586, doi: 10.1136/vr.c5523 (html)
  • Garcia-Saenz A, McCarter P, Baylis M (2010) The influence of host number on the attraction of biting midges, Culicoides spp, to light traps. Medical and Veterinary Entomology, doi:10.1111/j.1365-2915.2010.00904.x   (html)
  • C. M. McCann, M. Baylis, D. J.  L. Williams (2010) The development of linear regression models using environmental variables to explain the spatial distribution of Fasciola hepatica infection in dairy herds in England and Wales. International Journal for Parasitology 40,1021-1028  (html)
  • Baylis M, Parkin H, Kreppel K, Carpenter S, Mellor PS & Mcintyre KM (2010) Evaluation of housing as a means to protect cattle from Culicoides biting midges, the vectors of bluetongue virus. Medical and Veterinary Entomology 24, 38-45 (html)
  • McCann CM, Baylis M & Williams DJL (2010) The seroprevalence and spatial distribution of Fasciola hepatica infected dairy herds in England and Wales. The Veterinary Record 166, 612-617 (PDF)
  • McIntyre KM, Trewby H, Gubbins S & Baylis M (2010) The impact of sheep breed on the risk of classical scrapie.  Epidemiology & Infection 138(3), 384-392  (html)
  • Baylis M (2010). Infectious diseases. Biological Sciences Review 23, 2-6


  • Baylis M (2009) Towards predicting bluetongue.  The Veterinary Journal 182, 140-1
  • Baylis M, O’Connell L & Mellor PS (2009). Rates of bluetongue transmission between Culicoides sonorensis and sheep. In Bluetongue eds Mellor PS, Baylis M & Mertens PPC, Elsevier, Oxford.
  • Cosner C, Beier JC, Cantrell RS, Impoinvil D, Kapitanski D, Potts MD, Troyo A & Ruan S (2009) The effects of human movement on the persistence of vector-borne diseases.  Journal of Theoretical Biology 258, 550-560
  • Gubbins S and McIntyre KM (2009) Prevalence of sheep infected with classical scrapie in Great Britain, 1993-2007. Epidemiology and Infection 137, 787-791
  • Mellor PS, Baylis M & Mertens PPC (2009).  (eds) Bluetongue. Volume 3 of Biology of Animal Infections, series editor PP Pastoret. Elsevier, Oxford.
  • Mellor PS, Carpenter S, Baylis M & Mertens PPC (2009). Bluetongue in Europe and the Mediterranean Basin. Bluetongue Monograph, eds Mellor PS, Baylis M & Mertens PPC. Elsevier, Oxford.
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He was distressed, however, at having to part with his sheep, which he gave to the Bordeaux Academy of the Sciences.  The Academy proposed as the theme for its yearly prize competition an investigation into the reason for the redness of the sheep’s wool.  The prize was won by a scholar from the north, who demonstrated by A + B – C / Z that the sheep must of necessity be red, and furthermore that it would die of the rot.

The earliest example of the mathematical modelling of sheep disease? From Voltaire's Candide, 1759.