Non-Communicable Disease Modelling Projects

The NCD modelling research programme aim is to develop state of the art, evidence based simulations model to inform and support public health decision making on NCD prevention.

To achieve this, we work closely with the Food Policy Research programme to increase the relevance of our models and to inform current policy debates

We have developed a suite of models, using different simulation approaches including cell based and comparitve risk assessment, markov cohort simulation and microsimulation.


The IMPACT CHD family of models aims to explain past trends in coronary heart disease mortality . It covers now more than 20 countries around the world, with ongoing projects in Mexico, Argentina, Japan.
Using this model, we shown that key drivers of CHD mortality trends are risk factor level at the population level, but the picture is complex and varies across countries.

IMPACT Stroke and Diabetes

As part of the EU funded medchamps projects, we developed models with few data requirements to be deployed in countries with limited data. We have developed stroke models forTurkey and Tunisia, and diabetes models for the Occupied Palestine Territories, Syria, Turkey, Tunisia and Saudi Arabia


Impact NCD is an innovative microsimulation approach that has been used to explore policy issues on cardiovascular disease prevention at individual and population level. IMPACT NCD is evolving as the core engine for the most advanced models in our programme.

IMPACT Food Policy model

The Impact food policy models have been developed to explore the effectiveness and cost effectviness of several food policies, including Salt, smoking , Fruit and vegetables and sugar. Recently we have updated an extended the model to a microsimulation model based on IMPACT NCD with application in the US.


Impact BAM is a markov model developed to explore the joint dynamics of cardiovascular disease and dementia in the English population.

Active projects


Building upon our previous work, we are currently conducting a research project (NIHR HTA Grant) to provide a validated open source/open access, flexible model to enable commissioners to quantify the potential and cost effectiveness for population health gain of the NHS Health Check Programme. Our goal is to develop a comprehensive microsimulation of NCD useful to explore the primary prevention of NCD, and specifically the implementation of the NHS Health Checks.
Collaboration: University of Manchester, Liverpool Research and Implementation Group. Funded by National Institutes of Health Research.


Using the extended IMPACT Food Policy Model, we are exploring the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of different diet population interventions in the US population.
Collaboration: Tufts University, Harvard University, New York University. Funded by the US National Institute of Health.

IMPACT BAM cost-effectiveness

We are extending the IMPACT BAM model to explore the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of the joint prevention of cardiovascular disease and dementia.
Collaboration: UOL, University College London, Institute of Fiscal Studies. Funded by the British Heart Foundation.