Degrees of Difference: The economics of the education electoral gap, generational differences and why they matter
3:30pm - 5:00pm /
Thursday 17th March 2022
Type: Seminar /
Category: Research
- Dr Luca Bernardi
- Admission: This is a free event. Please register via the Eventbrite link provided for the Zoom Link
- Book now
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Jane Green (Nuffield College, University of Oxford): with Roosmarijn De Geus, (University of Reading)
Abstract: The economic and cultural impacts of globalisation have challenged political systems and shifted the axes of political competition. We argue that two key steps have been overlooked in understanding these effects. First, the impacts of such slow, gradual changes need to be understood inter-generationally – because they have different impacts depending on when they happen in the life-cycle. Older generations have been largely insulated from their economic impacts. The degree to which this is true will vary cross-nationally, but the implications are substantial. Second, graduates are better able to compete in today’s job markets, whereas non-graduates are now left behind by the effects of globalisation, wealth inequality and the expansion of higher education. We provide evidence from Great Britain consistent with these arguments. Several implications follow. We show that the most culturally conservative individuals are not the most economically insecure, and the conflation of cultural and economic explanations therefore requires revision. Left parties cannot count on their more educated voters. These voters will accumulate greater economic security, and be cross-pressured towards right parties. The politics of education may increasingly become an economic divide, and this divide may deepen and widen over time. Plenty of caveats follow, in particular the need for more over-time and cross-national evidence, but our early conclusions could have wide implications for the future and may also help us better understand recent electoral events.
Bio: I am Professorial Fellow and Professor or Political Science and British Politics at Nuffield College, University of Oxford. I am the Director of the Nuffield Politics Research Centre and Westminster Bridge, Co-Director of the British Election Study, President of the British Politics Group of the American Political Science Association, Elections Analyst for ITV News' twice BAFTA nominated live overnight election results programmes, and a Senior Fellow at the Centre for British Politics at the University of Hull. I am interested in the link between what governments do (policy outcomes, the economy, political competition) and how people respond to them. I am a co-author (with the British Election Study team), of 'Electoral Shocks: Understanding the Volatile Voter in a Turbulent World', OUP. I am also author, with Will Jennings, of 'The Politics of Competence: Parties, Public Opinion and Voters', CUP, 2017. I am working on a number of projects to understand levelling up, how voters think about place, the electoral importance of wealth on Brexit support, and the electoral consequences of the government's handling of the Covid-19 pandemic. I also work on understanding sources of error in survey measurement, the basis of people’s perceptions at both a local and national level, and other aspects of the dynamics and outcomes of British politics and policy-making.
Abstract: The economic and cultural impacts of globalisation have challenged political systems and shifted the axes of political competition. We argue that two key steps have been overlooked in understanding these effects. First, the impacts of such slow, gradual changes need to be understood inter-generationally – because they have different impacts depending on when they happen in the life-cycle. Older generations have been largely insulated from their economic impacts. The degree to which this is true will vary cross-nationally, but the implications are substantial. Second, graduates are better able to compete in today’s job markets, whereas non-graduates are now left behind by the effects of globalisation, wealth inequality and the expansion of higher education. We provide evidence from Great Britain consistent with these arguments. Several implications follow. We show that the most culturally conservative individuals are not the most economically insecure, and the conflation of cultural and economic explanations therefore requires revision. Left parties cannot count on their more educated voters. These voters will accumulate greater economic security, and be cross-pressured towards right parties. The politics of education may increasingly become an economic divide, and this divide may deepen and widen over time. Plenty of caveats follow, in particular the need for more over-time and cross-national evidence, but our early conclusions could have wide implications for the future and may also help us better understand recent electoral events.
Bio: I am Professorial Fellow and Professor or Political Science and British Politics at Nuffield College, University of Oxford. I am the Director of the Nuffield Politics Research Centre and Westminster Bridge, Co-Director of the British Election Study, President of the British Politics Group of the American Political Science Association, Elections Analyst for ITV News' twice BAFTA nominated live overnight election results programmes, and a Senior Fellow at the Centre for British Politics at the University of Hull. I am interested in the link between what governments do (policy outcomes, the economy, political competition) and how people respond to them. I am a co-author (with the British Election Study team), of 'Electoral Shocks: Understanding the Volatile Voter in a Turbulent World', OUP. I am also author, with Will Jennings, of 'The Politics of Competence: Parties, Public Opinion and Voters', CUP, 2017. I am working on a number of projects to understand levelling up, how voters think about place, the electoral importance of wealth on Brexit support, and the electoral consequences of the government's handling of the Covid-19 pandemic. I also work on understanding sources of error in survey measurement, the basis of people’s perceptions at both a local and national level, and other aspects of the dynamics and outcomes of British politics and policy-making.