Stochastic dynamics of a warmer Great Barrier Reef

Multivariate statistical model for benthic community structure on the Great Barrier Reef, in press at Ecology. The definitive version will be here. Here are a preprint and the supporting information.
Also, look at Gross and Edmunds' recent paper. They simultaneously and independently came up with a similar approach to studying reef dynamics in the Caribbean.

Movies

Animations of projected changes in stationary distributions of reef composition with increasing climatology (long-term sea surface temperature at a site) for low and medium levels of local threat.

Code

Download and unpack this R code (creates directory distribution). Change to this directory, start R (requires packages boot, car, compositions, expm, mvtnorm, RColorBrewer, Cairo, maps, mapdata, ncf, sp, mvoutlier), and follow the instructions in README.txt in the zip file. Includes a simulated data set (gbrnoise.txt) with the same structure as the real data used in the paper.

Slides

Slides from an attempt to explain the modelling approach in a one-dimensional form (for a school mathematics workshop).

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