Forecasting Convective Storms and Windstorms Using the ECMWF Ensemble

  • Supervisors: Prof David Schultz
    Prof Geraint Vaughan


  • External Supervisors: Drs. Anna Ghelli, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts

  • Contact:

    Prof David Schultz David.Schultz@manchester.ac.uk

  • CASE Partner: No

Application deadline: 3 February 2017

Introduction:

All weather forecasts are wrong, but some can be useful.  How to determine which forecasts are useful and which are not is a challenge in modern numerical weather prediction. Constructing useful forecasting models and diagnosing model output is ripe for fresh perspectives. 

Because of their small scales, high-impact weather events such as convective storms and their associated impacts (tornadoes, heavy rain, hail, convective winds, and lightning) cannot be forecast at this time by global forecasting models. As such, indirect means are needed to understand how to forecast such events from the models.

The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts in Reading, UK, produces a number of different forecast products every day as part of their operational suite.  One product is the global ensemble forecasting system. Ensemble modelling takes advantage of the uncertainty in initial conditions and model formulation to produce 51 possible forecasts. Work is needed on how to best use this model output in operational forecasting environments and to understand its strengths and weaknesses, particularly for high-impact weather phenomena such as thunderstorms or windstorms associated with intense cool-season extratropical cyclones.

Also, some organizations use the ECMWF model output to initialize their own limited-area models. How best to use this data and construct the best forecast product remains an active area of research.

Project Summary:

There are a number of viable research questions involved in this project. 

• How useful is the ECMWF ensemble as a tool for forecasting high-impact weather events such as convective storms and windstorms?  For example, how does the morphology and intensity of convective storms in the model ensemble compare to reality?  From the errors and bias in the forecasts, what physical processes in the models need improvement?

• Are there synoptic-scale regimes in which high-impact weather events become more (or less) predictable?

• How do forecast errors for windstorms grow as a function of lead time and the spread of the ensemble?

• How can aspects of convective storms unresolved by the model (e.g., lightning, tornadoes, damaging wind, hail) best be forecast?  Can new diagnostic tools be developed and validated?

• What is the best way for ECMWF ensembles to be employed as input to higher-resolution, limited-area models run locally?

• Do forecast models from various organizations produce the same errors?

• Students are also encouraged to suggest their own research project.  Please contact Profs Schultz and Vaughan to discuss your ideas.

This project is ideal for students who want to be challenged and to develop a range of skills including theory, observations and modeling.  Ideally, students should be comfortable and confident in computer programming.  Your background can be in meteorology, atmospheric science, physics, mathematics, statistics, computer science, or a related field.  The student has much say in the direction of this project.  The successful candidate will be expected to spend several weeks each year at ECMWF under co-supervision with the research and forecasting teams. 

This project provides an excellent opportunity to work with the best operational forecasting model in the world on cutting-edge science questions at the limit of our predictability.  Upon graduation with your PhD, the successful candidate will have gained useful work experience at ECMWF, developing skills that can be used in a wide range of careers afterward.

References:

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