The Institute of Irish Studies/Sunday Times NI Survey May 2026

The survey is based on a sample of 1534 Northern Ireland electors aged 18+. The survey was conducted using an online panel methodology with the data weighted (i.e. gender, age, SEG, local government district and religion) to be representative of the N Ireland electorate. The survey has a margin of error of +/- 2.5[PS1.1]% at the 95% Confidence Level. Fieldwork was undertaken between 8 and 22 May 2026. The survey was undertaken by Social Market Research (SMR) on behalf of the Institute of Irish Studies at the University of Liverpool.

Please find below a summary of the key findings, or for more detailed findings please download the complete report IIS Sunday Times - NI Survey May 2026 (pdf). The results and related opinion pieces by Professor Peter Shirlow and Dr Sean Haughey appeared in the Sunday Times on 7 June 2026, links to these will be provided in due course.

The State of the Parties

What do the predicted vote shares tell us?

The TUV (+2), UUP (+2) and Greens (+4) are the only parties that have a growth in predicted vote share when compared to the Assembly election in 2022. The Executive parties, other than the UUP, have experienced decline (SF -3, DUP -2 and Alliance -1).

Are we entering Border Poll Territory?

In simple terms we are not. Only election results will determine the calling of a referendum. The pro-unity vote share has remained static (despite the decline of pro-union parties) since 1998 and there are no signs that it can reach the 50+1 benchmark. What is shown within the survey is a small decline, within the pro-unity bloc, as opposed to the accelerated growth required to reach 50+1.

The Executive and Assembly: No Appetite for Collapse?

Would voters tolerate another suspension of the Assembly?

It would of course be contingent upon the reason for collapse, but we find a 40% gap between those who stated that they would not vote for a party that led to suspension of the Assembly than those who would. That opinion is particularly strong among SF voters. A mere 20% of unionists, 16.3% of nationalists and 8.3% of neithers would vote for a party that caused suspension.

Further Evidence of a More Reconciled Society Reconciled Society

Surely legacy divides people?

As much as it does, we now have a society in which 75% state that the ‘other’ side was harmed during the Troubles. The vast majority agree that politicians could do more to build reconciliation and only 14% believe murals that depict violence are helpful in a shared society. There is an obvious need for the political parties to reflect upon inter-community consensus and therefore develop more reconciliatory actions and language.

But surely because of segregated education and housing there are few opportunities for inter-community engagement?

They are important factors but nearly 80% have friendship across the divide and the majority are involved in constructive inter-community activities.

Constitutional Issues: The importance of the Question asked?

Is it true that more Protestants are favouring Irish unity and fewer Catholics support staying in the UK?

No, these shares by religion have remained relatively constant in University of Liverpool surveys. Around 1 in 5 Catholics favour remaining in the UK compared to around 1 in 20 Protestant who favour constitutional change. The neithers also remain majority supportive of remaining in the UK.

Younger people favour unity?

Yes, our surveys over the past few decades have shown that a plurality of young people favour constitutional change, but we must factor in that the electoral weight of younger people is lessening. If there were to be constitutional change we would be looking at the 2040s at the earliest.

 Will people leave their present constitutional position?

Around 50% of pro-unity and a third who are pro-union are prepared to either remain in NI or accept constitutional change if there is evidence that a) NI achieves better social and more inclusive cultural outcomes b) the Republic offers lower house prices and a better standard of living.